2025 SAW significant developments in Pakistan, some of which were positive while others reinforced troubling, negative trends. A surge in public optimism in the earlier part of the year seemed to fade towards year-end. An Ipsos poll released in December found nearly 70 per cent of people felt the country was headed in the wrong direction. It also showed 82pc of respondents had no confidence in the economy despite progress made by the government in achieving short-term macroeconomic stabilisation. Government-opposition confrontations kept a deeply polarised country in an unsettled state, making political stability elusive. There was a marked slide into authoritarianism, which reinforced the trend of democratic recession. The civil-military balance shifted even more decisively to the latter’s advantage in a governing arrangement that went beyond being ‘hybrid-plus’. The internal security situation continued to be challenging with an upsurge in militant activity and terrorist attacks. One of the most consequential events of the year was the four-day conflict in May between India and Pakistan. Pakistan’s effective management of the military confrontation in which it got the better of its adversary generated a rise in national pride and self-confidence. It produced a significant surge in the military’s popularity and image. India failed to achieve its objectives in spite of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s unsubstantiated claims of destroying the “terrorist infrastructure”. Its resort to a military ‘solution’ for a terror attack backfired as it miscalculated the consequences of its actions. As a result of its clumsy diplomacy and missteps, New Delhi lost considerable ground in the international arena from which Islamabad gained. The crisis left a long-troubled relationship in an even more fraught state with neither side showing any interest in resuming diplomatic engagement. With sharply conflicting lessons drawn by them from the conflict this heightened the risk for miscalculation and created uncertainty ahead. 2025 saw democratic erosion, greater military dominance and elusive political stability. Its domestic political consequence was to further shift the power balance from the civilians to the military, make the military more dominant in governance and establish what many agreed was a ‘new model’ of military ascendancy. It led to constitutional changes that bestowed wider powers, privileges and lifelong immunity to the top military leadership. It also involved the most far-reaching transformation of the higher defence organisation since the 1970s. These developments left the coalition government, with its legitimacy in doubt since the disputed election of 2024, look even weaker. In ceding so much power to the establishment, it turned itself into a junior ‘partner’ in the country’s governance. Its credibility was further eroded by its increasingly authoritarian conduct. The most egregious action in 2025 was the government’s assault on the independence of the judiciary by adoption of the 27th Constitutional Amendment . This struck at the heart of the Constitution and delivered another blow to democracy by subordinating the judiciary to the executive and undermining the rule of law. There were a series of other democratic reversals in 2025. Every indicator of democracy showed regression. Parliament was reduced to a rubber stamp, freedom of assembly curbed, opposition suppressed, the media controlled and digital space restricted. Pressure was mounted on human rights organisations that impeded their work. Political protests were frequently banned and dubious cases filed against opposition leaders. But power grabs such as through the 27th Amendment and repressive actions did not inject confidence in the government, which frequently appeared jittery and insecure in the face of criticism. It seemed to mistake repressive ‘control’ for strength whereas that only signalled its weakness and lack of self-confidence. Speculation intensified about a government ban on PTI after adoption of a resolution by the Punjab Assembly in early December. This followed the military spokesman’s presser in which he described Imran Khan, jailed for over two years now, as “a national security threat”. A ban would be disastrous if it were to happen. But for its part, a divided and factionalised PTI was unable to pose a serious challenge to the government or pressure it to meet its demands. Where the government made progress was in stabilising the economy, controlling inflation and staying on track on the IMF programme . But economic stabilisation remained fragile and rested on unsustainable factors (borrowed resources and loan rollovers by friendly countries) especially as Pakistan is faced with large external financing needs in coming years and has low foreign exchange reserves and heavy debt burden. The government’s economic measures fell way short of real reform involving, for example, structural changes in the taxation system and reining in expenditure, privatisation of financially hemorrhaging state-owned enterprises and addressing the energy sector’s circular debt. 2025 did not indicate the transition from stabilisation to growth and investment had begun. Despite official efforts and signing of multiple MoUs, investment including FDI remained stagnant. The investment-to-GDP ratio at just over 13pc is actually lower than in previous years. Economic growth also remained stalled. The governor of the State Bank recently admitted that Pakistan’s current growth model is not working. The country remained mired in a low-growth, low-investment, high-debt equilibrium trap. Without action on dealing with structural issues this situation will not change. With exports contracting and imports surging, economic experts warned of a crisis ahead from the widening external account deficit. The outgoing year saw a significant spike in terrorist and militant violence across KP and Balochistan and terror strikes beyond. The two insurgency-afflicted provinces struggled through the year with attacks by TTP and the Balochistan Liberation Army respectively. While the army and law-enforcement agencies made notable gains, the internal security situation remained worrisome. The rise in casualties of security personnel made 2025 the deadliest year in almost a decade. The need to revisit and redesign Pakistan’s counter-militancy strategy was acutely felt but the task is yet to be undertaken. These trends and developments indicate the challenges that lie ahead in the coming year. What is evident is that political and economic stability will remain elusive unless fundamental problems are resolved, domestic peace established and governance is focused on meeting public needs and aspirations rather than advancing the interests of a ruling elite preoccupied with perpetuating its power. The writer is a former ambassador to the US, UK and UN. Published in Dawn, December 15th, 2025