The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will meet today (Monday) for deliberation on the key economic issues to decide on the key interest rate. At its previous meeting on October 27, 2025 , the MPC decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 11%, saying that the impact of the recent floods on the broader economy was lower than anticipated. Industrialists push SBP for rate cut ahead of final MPC meeting of 2025 Market experts widely expect the central bank to maintain the status quo in today’s meeting. Arif Habib Limited (AHL) anticipates no change in the policy rate, “maintaining stability while adopting a cautious stance as the base effect that had been keeping headline inflation low is now fading”. “The slight widening of the current account deficit and the early stage of domestic economic recovery further support a prudent, wait-and-see approach from the central bank,” said AHL. Similarly, a Reuters poll found that the central bank is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged , as analysts push back rate-cut forecasts to late 2026 after the IMF warned inflation risks persist and policy must stay “appropriately tight”. All 12 analysts surveyed expect no cut in the policy meeting on Monday. Most respondents now believe the SBP will not begin easing until the closing months of FY26, which ends in June 2026, with some analysts pushing forecasts for the first cut into fiscal year 2027, read the report. Previous MPC meeting In its October meeting , the MPC kept the policy rate unchanged at 11%. The decision was in line with market expectations. The committee, at that time, noted that headline inflation rose significantly to 5.6% in September, whereas core inflation remained unchanged at 7.3%. “Moreover, economic activity gained further momentum, as depicted by robust growth in high-frequency economic indicators. “At the same time, the committee noted uncertainties around this outlook arising from volatile global commodity prices; challenging export prospects amidst the evolving tariff dynamics; and potential domestic food supply frictions.” Since the last MPC meeting, several key economic developments have occurred. The rupee has appreciated by 0.2% , while petrol prices have remained largely unchanged. Internationally, oil prices have reduced by over 6% since the last MPC, hovering around $57 per barrel. Pakistan’s headline inflation clocked in at 6.1% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in November 2025, according to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data. In addition, Pakistan’s current account posted a deficit of $112 million in October 2025, data released by the SBP showed. The deficit follows a surplus of $83 million recorded in September 2025 and a surplus of $296 million in October 2024. SBP-held foreign exchange reserves rose to $14.58 billion as of December 5, 2025, the central bank said. Net foreign reserves held by commercial banks stood at $5.03 billion, taking the country’s total liquid foreign reserves to $19.61 billion.