The current account posted surplus of $100 million in November against a deficit of $291 million in the previous month. In 5MFY26, the current account deficit stood at $812 million against a surplus of $502 million in the same period last year. There is general slowdown in overall trade during November, as both exports and imports plummeted on monthly basis. The worrisome number is of goods exports which stood at $2.3 billion in November– lowest in 28 months. The government needs to introspect as its stated policy is to have an export-led growth while the outcome is stark opposite. There is something wrong somewhere in the policy – to start, the currency is overvalued evidentby rising it to 104.8 in November. It should be in 90s if government wants export-led growth. The concerning point is of food trade balance which was in surplus ($167 mn in 5MFY25) and now having a deficit of $1.4 billion in 5MFY26 – a delta of $1.6 billion. It is not only due to dip in rice exports (down by 43% in 5MFY26), but as ex-rice exports also dipped by 29 percent. Sugar is a culprit too – Pakistan imported $172 million in 5MFY26 (versus almost none in same period last year) and there is no export this year so far while last year same period sugar exports were $240 million. Apart from that there is significant decline in vegetable exports (down by 48% in 5MFY26) and oil seeds, nuts and kernals (down by 73% to $62 mn). Pakistan being an agriculture country is facing headwinds in the sector which is partially attributed to misaligned and confused government policies (in case of wheat and sugar support prices) and rest is due to climate change. The outcome is not good, and the country needs to find other avenues of exports. The loin share of goods exports continued to be textile which are up by 4 percent to $7.5 billion in 5MFY26– and within it better performers are value added knitwear (up by 11% to $2.1 bn) and readymade garments (increased by 6% to $1.74 bn). However, the sentiments of value-added exporters are not good. Global market is falling due to Trump tariffs and Pakistan losing its share to more competitive players. The silverling is in services exports – up by 17 percent to $3.8 billion in 5MFY26. It’s not only IT exports which are growing (up by 18.5% to $1.8 billion) but other business services exports are even growing at a better rate (up by 24% to $816 mn in 5MFY26). A bigger tax delta between services rendered to domestic economy versus exports is enticing incremental professional to move from domestically salaried to freelancer. Then to evade taxes, there could be cases of marginal goods exports reported as services exports where the tax is 1 percent full and final on export proceeds. Overall goods imports are growing at a decent pace (up by 11% to $25.6 bn in 5MFY26). This is even though global oil prices are low (currently below $60/barrels) and petroleum imports dipped by 2 percent to $5.9 billion while petroleum consumption is growing. Ex-petroleum imports are up by 16 percent – and its not broad based. The higher jump is mainly in food imports (increased by 22% to $3.3 billion) and transport imports which more than doubled in 5MFY26 to $1.4 billion, as automobiles sales are growing and share of expensive crossovers/SUVs increasing. Then CBU busses, trucks and other heavy vehicles imports jumped by 11 times to $176 million – thanks to provinces (mainly Punjab) spend on buses. The overall goods and services trade balance worsened by 27 percent to $14.1 billion in 5MFY26, and primary income deficit increased by 4 percent to $4.0 billion. The continued growth in home remittances on a high base (up by 9 percent to $16.1 billion) resulted in having an overall current account surplus. There is nothing substantial to mention on financial and capital accounts within the balance of payment, as FDI keeps on plummeting on a low base –down by 36 percent to $818 million and the portfolio investment is in red too despite record breaking stock market performance. At the end, the buck stops at loans (mainly by the government) to boost forex reserves which after having $1.2 billion from IMF reached $15.8 billion (as per SBP governor). Going forward, the loans seem to be only option to boost reserves, as current account may be in deficit in FY26 and FDI seems elusive. Not a great strategy for a debt-ridden country.