The crash of a Russian-made Orlan-10 reconnaissance drone in Türkiye’s Kocaeli province has raised serious questions that go far beyond a technical malfunction. Coming shortly after an unidentified UAV was intercepted by Turkish F-16s on a NATO/national mission, the incident has triggered speculation over whether these events are isolated accidents—or part of a broader, calculated test of Türkiye’s airspace, defenses, and strategic posture, particularly amid growing tensions around the Black Sea.