How the Middle East can escape the cycle of conflict in 2026 Submitted by Seyed Hossein Mousavian on Mon, 12/15/2025 - 15:55 Implementing the two-state solution and establishing a comprehensive US-Iran dialogue would mark major steps towards this goal People take part in a demonstration in support of Palestine, outside the United Nations in New York City on 29 July 2025 (Stephanie Keith/Getty Images/AFP) On The past year has been one of the most consequential in the modern history of the Middle East. A series of interconnected military escalations - from Gaza to Iran - has reshaped the regional order, revealed deep strategic anxieties, and exposed the limits of American and Israeli power in a volatile geopolitical landscape. Across the region, Israeli military operations have dramatically widened . In Gaza , the continued devastation since October 2023 has led to unprecedented humanitarian suffering and political fragmentation. Israeli air strikes have also targeted Iranian and Hezbollah positions in Syria , while similar operations have expanded in Lebanon , threatening a broader regional war. In Yemen , Israeli strikes aimed at disrupting Houthi capabilities added yet another front to an already overstretched conflict map. Most stunning was Israel’s attack this past September on Qatar , a US ally hosting the biggest American military base in the Middle East. Justified by Israeli officials as an attack on Hamas leaders who were negotiating in Doha, the strike missed its target, and Qatar condemned the move as a violation of its sovereignty, amid widespread international outrage. These actions unfolded alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s renewed public endorsement of the “Greater Israel” concept . Supported by ultranationalist Israelis, this expansionist vision is widely understood to encompass the occupied West Bank, Gaza, Lebanon and Jordan , along with parts of Syria, Egypt , Iraq and Saudi Arabia . 'Historic' strikes on Iran In mid-2025, the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. While Washington framed the operation as an “intentionally limited” and preventive action, Iran’s response surprised many observers, as it rained missiles onto Israeli cities. US President Donald Trump subsequently appeared to praise the Iranian strikes, acknowledging their significant impact: “Israel was hit really hard, especially in the last couple of days. Those ballistic missiles, boy, they took out a lot of buildings.” The regional situation was further complicated when, under a UN-backed plan, Gaza was removed from Palestinian administrative control and placed under an international authority led by the US president. While supporters argued this was necessary to prevent renewed militancy, critics called it a dangerous precedent that effectively legitimises external trusteeship over occupied populations. If US policies continue unchanged into 2026, the Middle East will witness more war, instability and economic disruption Recent developments echo a famous admission by US General Wesley Clark in 2007, recalling a 2001 Pentagon plan to “take out seven countries in five years, starting with Iraq, and then Syria, Lebanon, Libya , Somalia, Sudan and, finishing off, Iran”. But despite the Trump administration’s insistence that the 2025 strikes on Iran marked a “historic success”, the long-term consequences for the US are far more severe. Washington has now placed itself in the category of powers that have launched direct military aggression against the Iranian homeland - alongside invaders such as Genghis Khan and Saddam Hussein. This is a mark that will not fade from Iran’s civilisational memory; it will shape Iranian nationalism and the country’s regional posture for generations. If US policies continue unchanged into 2026, the Middle East will witness more war, instability and economic disruption. The US risks becoming further entangled in a region from which every administration has sought to pivot. Washington’s ability to focus on the critical priorities identified in its 2025 National Security Strategy - the Western Hemisphere, China , technological competition, and global economic resilience - will be severely undermined. The attack on Iran thus represented a strategic setback for both the region and the US. The path to stability As long as Tel Aviv continues pursuing its “Greater Israel” vision, and as long as the US-Israeli military confrontation with Iran persists, there will be little hope for lasting peace. Regional mistrust between Iran and its neighbours remains high, and the geopolitical architecture of West Asia is fragile. Peace and stability depend on several steps: firstly, the US must move away from rhetorical support to active implementation of UN resolutions on Palestinian statehood. Without resolving the eight-decade Israel-Palestine conflict, no regional framework can endure. Secondly, given their influence, the US and China are uniquely positioned to mediate between Israel and Iran to prevent further military escalation - and they should do so. Trump's UN-backed 'peace plan': A new front in the American colonisation of Palestine Read More » Thirdly, the eight countries bordering the Gulf should take steps towards a regional security and cooperation system, reducing reliance on external powers and building predictable, institutionalised dialogue. Fourthly, the Eurasian Economic Cooperation Organization should progress beyond the economic front towards collective political and security mechanisms, integrating Turkey , Iran, Pakistan , and Central Asian and Caucasus states. Finally, Washington and Tehran need to shift from frozen diplomacy to renewed negotiations. This could enable them to reach a sustainable nuclear agreement, while also addressing mutual interests and areas of cooperation, and engaging on disputes that have fuelled decades of hostility. The past year has exposed the dangers of unilateralism, militarised regional strategies, and maximalist ideological projects. Only by implementing UN resolutions, establishing regional security mechanisms, and pursuing a comprehensive US-Iran dialogue can the Middle East escape its cycle of conflict. Without such steps, 2026 may bring deeper instability - at great cost to both the region and the US. The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye. Politics Opinion Post Date Override 0 Update Date Mon, 05/04/2020 - 21:29 Update Date Override 0