PAKISTAN’S history goes around in circles, it is said repeatedly, these days. It has easily become the most popular analysis presented on the talk shows, so much so that the Urdu phrase, daiyron ka safar , has become rather familiar. For every incident in the present, there is one from the past to suggest that this is how Pakistan rolls. If the PTI complains about human rights now, the PPP will remember events from the Zia era when it was under fire. When asked about the mess around us now, those in government want to know why they had suffered the brunt of the state’s wrath in 2018 without any support from those who today want to speak up for the PTI. In Pakistan, it is always the worst of times for those who are in the opposition and the best of times for those in power. It’s a circle, ain’t it? But in this game of going round and round, the politicos do not just dance around repression but also the notion of negotiations. What is known on television talk shows as muzakaraat and mufahimat . The ruling elite may be sitting pretty but their biggest worry is the economy. And this appears to be popular these days. Just on the weekend, it was much mentioned in public speeches by the government as well as the opposition. It came up for discussion during an event held to commemorate the death of Khawaja Rafique, the father of PML-N stalwart Saad Rafique. And in Islamabad, the two-day event by the opposition alliance, TTAP, also pushed for talks. But neither of the two sides are giving this message unambiguously. While the exhausted second tier of the PTI, along with the allied parties, are suggesting talks, the message from Imran Khan is hardly conciliatory. He has asked the new and youthful chief minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to hit the streets . Similarly, though some government ministers may be asking for talks, the treatment meted out to the PTI in recent days suggests otherwise. New sentences have been handed down to Khan and his wife as well as PTI leaders imprisoned in Lahore. Similarly, the use of water cannons on Khan’s sisters outside the jail also reveals a hardening of stance. This is confirmed by the statement of Ayaz Sadiq, the National Assembly speaker, who says he is no longer in a position to facilitate talks. This ambiguity is unsurprising because each side perhaps has much to lose from softening their stance. The PML-N (and those behind) cannot afford to make peace with PTI right now — for Khan and PTI’s existence means the N continues to be irrelevant in Punjab. They would prefer to ease the pressure on the PTI only and when some political space has been regained and not before. For Khan (more so than the rest) reaching an agreement with the government would mean accepting this government for some time (the best he can hope for is an early election date) and his statements suggest that the imprisonment has not weakened him enough to settle for this. And though the government does not say this explicitly, it would prefer to improve the economy, gain some legitimacy and then ease the repression in society. On the surface this may sound sensible for who is going to point out that a decade of growth under Zia and Musharraf respectively did not secure an electoral win for the parties patronised by the dictators. But while the ruling coalition can mull over what a better economy will bring them, it might not be out of place to also pull out another nugget from circular history. The PPP and Musharraf reached out to each other for a possible alliance shortly after the 2002 election but the talks were not able to get anywhere till 2007. By this time, not only were the next elections due but Musharraf was far weaker and needed to accept some of Benazir Bhutto’s demands. But it is important to point out that unlike Khan, BB was sitting abroad and safe from cases, persecution and conviction. Perhaps it was easier for her to wait than him. The point here being that there is little need for those in power to talk to Imran Khan; especially as it is now clear that his party can no longer mount the kind of protest needed to put pressure on the government. However, this does not mean that the status quo faces no challenge. The ruling elite may be sitting pretty compared to the PTI but their biggest worry is the economy; unlike Zia and Musharraf, it lacks the kind of legitimacy and goodwill provided by foreign aid and comfortable financial conditions. And this is why there are statements aplenty about the need to move on from stabilisation to growth. But growth, as we have been told, does not come easily to Pakistan. It leads to a balance of payments crisis and a return to the IMF. Already, experts are pointing out that there are some indications of pressure on the rupee. In this focus on the economy, there is chatter that the federal government is looking to tinker with the NFC to create some fiscal space for spending at the centre. Apparently, the government in Islamabad thinks this will help it escape the IMF; at the same time, it would be easier than fixing some of the long-standing problems of the economy because the latter would hurt the most powerful far too much. And this is where the political status quo also comes into the picture. Any effort to tamper with the NFC will shake the power equation between the establishment, PPP and PML-N. Chances are some space will be created for the PTI and the rest of the opposition if a wedge is drawn between these coalition partners. Indeed, it is the economy which has the potential to be the biggest variable in the new year. The writer is a journalist. Published in Dawn, December 23rd, 2025