For most of the past decade, oil markets have treated decisions by OPEC as the primary signal for price direction. That hierarchy is being tested, but not overturned. What has changed is where traders look for short-term cues. Increasingly, those cues are coming from China, not because Beijing controls supply, but because its buying behavior now dominates marginal demand and near-term price discovery. As reported by Reuters, China has overtaken OPEC as the most influential force in oil price formation, driven by the scale and timing of its crude purchases rather than any formal attempt to manage prices. The change shows us how oil markets have become increasingly demand-led, with China sitting right in the center. China is the world’s largest crude importer, but its influence extends beyond just the volumes that make headlines.  Refinitiv analysts recently noted that the traditional view of producers like OPEC+ as the primary oil price setters has been “challenged in 2025 by China,” explaining that Beijing’s use of strategic stockpiles to provide a crude price floor and ceiling effectively supplanted producer group direction this year. citeanalyst voices added, I can provide additional options. Unlike OECD buyers, China’s oil system blends state-owned majors, independent refiners, and strategic stockpiling […]