Israel-Turkey rivalry moves to the Horn of Africa Submitted by Ragip Soylu on Mon, 12/29/2025 - 15:26 By recognising Somaliland, Israel aims to target Houthis and counter the deep Turkish presence in Somalia A demonstrator points to the white five‑pointed star on the Somali flag as Somalis attend a protest against Israel's recognition of Somaliland in the Hodan district of Mogadishu, 28 December 2025 (Feisal Omar/Reuters) Off When Israeli journalists this week tried to book flights to Hargeisa after Israel’s recognition of the breakaway state of Somaliland, they encountered something unexpected: international carriers required them to first obtain visas from Somalia. Despite Somaliland’s declaration of independence in the early 1990s, no state other than Israel recognises its claim. Therefore, anyone travelling to that part of the world still needs visas issued by Mogadishu. The incident is another reminder that Israel’s decision to establish diplomatic ties with this de facto state is not popular in the region. It has drawn criticism from many regional actors, including Turkey, which has heavily invested in Somalia over the past 13 years. Many Arab and regional countries, with the notable exception of the United Arab Emirates, condemned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision. Regional experts offer various explanations for Israel’s move. Some believe it is a step toward relocating one million Palestinians from Gaza to the Horn of Africa, while others point to the threat posed by Yemen’s Houthis, a movement officially known as Ansar Allah that has targeted Israel in response to its actions in Gaza. “Somaliland is located directly across from Yemen, which would allow Israel to establish a military facility there, gain access to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea, and exert influence in East Africa,” said Kani Torun, a former ambassador with extensive expertise in the Horn of Africa and now a member of the Turkish parliament for the Future Party. Amichai Stein, an Israeli journalist with i24 who specialises in regional affairs, agrees. “So far, Israel has not developed a clear strategy to counter the Houthis, and this step could help the Israeli government strengthen its influence in the region, especially as the Suez Canal is largely blocked for cargo traffic destined for Israel,” he said. “A second goal is to counterbalance Turkey’s influence in the Horn of Africa, as Turkey maintains military bases in the area. Ankara is not alone, the UAE also has a base there, and several other countries are seeking access and influence in this strategically important trade gateway.” Turkey has officially condemned the Israeli move, but all eyes are on President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is expected to make a statement later this week. On Tuesday, he is set to meet his Somali counterpart to announce the results of a seismic energy survey conducted by a Turkish ship off the coast of Somalia. Turkish-Israeli relations have rapidly deteriorated since 2023. Ankara accuses Israel of committing genocide in Gaza, which led to a Turkish trade embargo on Israel last year. Relations have become even more strained following the collapse of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime last December. Israel has pushed for a decentralised Syria, a position that runs counter to Turkish interests due to Ankara’s concerns about Kurdish control in the country’s northeast. Turkey’s key role in brokering a peace deal with Hamas in September, along with Washington’s reported request for Turkish forces to be deployed in Gaza, has further alarmed Israel. In response, Netanyahu has reactivated partnerships with Greece and Cyprus, signalling the potential formation of a military alliance. “Israel’s recognition of Somaliland will mainly intensify the Turkish-Israeli rivalry in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region,” said Abdiwahab Sheikh Abdisamad, executive director of the Nairobi-based AfroAsia Institute for Strategic Studies. Relations with Hargeisa Abdisamad noted that Turkey has invested heavily in Somalia, establishing maritime ports, its largest embassy in the world, a military training academy, management of Mogadishu airport, and projects in the space, energy, trade, and education sectors. “An Israeli move toward recognition of Somaliland would directly undercut Turkey’s geopolitical position, giving Israel a foothold on both sides of the Bab al-Mandeb and countering Turkish influence,” he said. Local reports suggest that Turkey and Somalia have long planned to establish another military base in Las Qoray, a port with direct access to the Red Sea located in the newly declared Somali state of Khatumo, which covers about 45 percent of Somaliland’s claimed territory. Torun, who served as Ankara’s envoy to Somalia from 2011 to 2014, said Turkey had reached a verbal agreement with Mogadishu to establish such a base and an adjacent small port, although the project never materialised. Somali president to visit Turkey amid Israel–Somaliland tensions Read More » “I expect that Erdogan will discuss the construction of the base with Hassan Sheikh Mohamud on Tuesday,” he said. Some in Ankara view the Somaliland-Israel deal as particularly embarrassing for the Turkish government, as Turkish officials have maintained a good working relationship with Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, even discreetly supporting his campaign since he was seen as more open to a confederal solution for Somalia. Torun said the Somaliland president was under significant political pressure and probably could not refuse such recognition efforts. He added that Turkey maintains a consulate in Somaliland and a special envoy for Somalia-Somaliland negotiations, putting it in a good position to engage with Hargeisa. “There are many tribes in Somaliland that oppose secession, and if Hargeisa insists on independence, it might retain only half its current population, as other regions could follow suit,” he said. Torun observed that the main problem in Somalia lies with the central government in Mogadishu, which under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has alienated other federal states. Puntland and Jubaland, for instance, severed ties with the current administration earlier this year, creating openings for Israeli maneuvering within the country. However, Torun added that he was not particularly worried about Israel’s move, as it has not yet gained support from regional countries or the United States. “Ethiopia pursued a similar sea-access agreement that would have granted Somaliland recognition, but the deal collapsed under regional pressure,” he said. “If Mogadishu can unite, Israel will not have much of a chance, at least for now.” Horn of Africa Ankara News Post Date Override 0 Update Date Mon, 05/04/2020 - 21:19 Update Date Override 0