As the world edges toward 2026, uncertainty has stopped being an occasional disruption and become the organizing principle of global affairs. Unlike earlier centuries, when volatility was driven mainly by economic cycles or familiar rivalries among great powers, today’s unpredictability arises from a more combustible mix: rapid technological change, shifting geopolitical alignments and crises that arrive without warning yet leave lasting damage. These so-called black swan events no longer feel rare; they feel structural. Two forces, above all, will shape the coming years. The first is geopolitics, which shows few signs of stabilizing. The war in Ukraine remains unresolved, not only devastating Eastern Europe but also reshaping global security calculations. In the Middle East, the aftershocks of the Israel-Hamas conflict continue to reverberate, widening regional fault lines and testing the credibility of international mediation. Add to this nuclear brinkmanship from unpredictable regimes and the chronic fragility of states across Africa and Asia, and the picture is one of persistent