Saudi Arabia and UAE bank on different military strengths in Yemen rivalry Submitted by Sean Mathews on Wed, 12/31/2025 - 05:18 Erstwhile allies are now locked in a dangerous standoff that analysts warn could benefit the Houthis A fighter from the UAE-trained Security Belt Force, which is dominated by members of the Southern Transitional Council (STC), in the southern Yemeni city of Aden in August 2019 (Nabil Hasan/AFP) Off Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are leaning on their respective military strengths in Yemen should the situation between the Gulf allies turned foes escalate further, Arab and US diplomats have told Middle East Eye. On Tuesday, tensions between the two regional powers spiked dramatically when Saudi-led forces bombed the southern Yemeni port of al-Mukalla, targeting what Riyadh said was a UAE-linked weapons shipment destined for the separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC). The STC, which has publicly supported Yemen's internationally recognised government against the Houthi rebels, launched an offensive against the Saudi-backed government troops earlier this month, seeking an independent state in the south. Citing the STC's advance and the weapons shipments as a threat to its national security, the kingdom said it was disappointed about "pressure exerted by the UAE" on the separatists to conduct military operations in the Hadhramaut and al-Mahara provinces, which border both the kingdom and neighbouring Oman. "The steps taken by the UAE are considered highly dangerous," the ministry said, adding that they went against the principles upon which a coalition was set up - backed by both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi - to support Yemen's internationally recognised government. The UAE's Foreign Ministry lashed out at the Saudis for suggesting they were trying to "undermine" Riyadh's security. Later, the UAE’s Ministry of Defence said it carried out a "comprehensive assessment" of its role in Yemen and had decided to end its mission there. A Gulf Arab official told MEE that the kingdom's precision strikes had surprised both the Emirati leadership as well as US officials. "This was not expected at the top," the official told MEE, adding that the kingdom's show of force came because Riyadh felt "tricked" after learning that the UAE was moving to bolster the STC with weapons and armoured vehicles even as it was negotiating a de-escalation with Saudi Arabia. 'Saudi Arabia's control over airspace, land crossings and maritime access in southern Yemen is expected to restrict the flow of arms, equipment and logistical support to the STC' - Mohammed al-Basha, analyst The unprecedented nature of the strikes prompted US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to hold calls with his Emirati and Saudi counterparts. The readouts of both calls were muted. A US diplomat and the Gulf Arab official told MEE that Washington was working to prevent a further escalation. Experts told MEE that the kingdom's strikes and the UAE withdrawal raised questions of how Abu Dhabi would continue to bolster its main proxy. Mohammed al-Basha, an expert on Yemen and founder of the Basha Report, told MEE that while the UAE could field hundreds of thousands of well-armed fighters on the ground, Saudi Arabia had better control of maritime choke points and border crossings, which would hamper efforts by Abu Dhabi to rearm its militia allies in a drawn-out conflict. "Saudi Arabia's control over airspace, land crossings and maritime access in southern Yemen is expected to restrict the flow of arms, equipment and logistical support to the STC," he said. Hesham Alghannam, a Saudi defense analyst in Riyadh and scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Center, told MEE that "while the UAE can mobilise large proxy forces, Saudi Arabia's advantage today lies elsewhere: international legitimacy, strategic depth, economic leverage, and lessons learned." 'Emirati networks' Tensions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia have been simmering for years, but escalated after the STC's advances earlier this month. Farea al-Muslimi, a Yemen expert at Chatham House, told MEE that the situation was increasingly tense and that the Gulf region was entering a period of rivalry "more dangerous than 2017", when then-allies Saudi Arabia and the UAE led a blockade of Qatar. "Even during the worst of the blockade, Saudi Arabia never bombed Qatar's proxies," al-Muslimi said. Basha said that while the UAE's announcement that it would withdraw its troops from Yemen was a major development, in reality, it carried little weight. "The withdrawal of UAE personnel does not signal disengagement by Abu Dhabi from its local allies in western and southern Yemen. Emirati networks and support structures on the ground remain intact," he told MEE. Yemen war: Mukalla strike shows Saudi Arabia has run out of patience with Abu Dhabi Read More » Saudi Arabia and the UAE were once aligned in Yemen, where they led a disastrous campaign to unseat the Iran-aligned Houthis a decade ago. The Houthis control Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, and most of the country’s populous northwest. The UAE began pulling its troops out of Yemen in 2019 and invested in local militias, leaving only a handful of advisers on the ground. The investment in proxies over the years gives Abu Dhabi an advantage now because it can count on up to 200,000 armed fighters, Basha said. The UAE supports a slew of militias which wield power along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and southwest including the National Resistance Forces, the Southern Giants Brigades and the Security Belt forces. Analysts told MEE that Saudi Arabia is rallying its own allies, including the Hadramaut Tribal Alliance and a militia called the National Shield, but these forces number only in the tens of thousands. "Saudi Arabia made very clear it considers the control of Hadhramaut's border with the kingdom a matter of national security," Eleonora Ardemagni, an expert on armed groups in Yemen and senior associate research fellow at ISPI , told MEE. "I don't think the Saudis will reconsider this, as long as the STC forces control Wadi Hadhramaut and the Petro Masila oil plant." Will Saudi air power be different this time? Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen a decade ago turned into a quagmire. Riyadh launched tens of thousands of air strikes that failed to dislodge the Houthis but caused thousands of civilian casualties, sparking a public relations backlash that sullied the Kingdom's image as a modernising business hub. Experts said Riyadh's strikes were intended in part to showcase that Riyadh has learnt its lessons. The Kingdom released surveillance footage to the media showing what appeared to be armoured vehicles before they were destroyed. The Houthis used mountainous terrain to frustrate Saudi Arabia’s advantage in the air, whereas in Hadramaut the STC is operating in open desert. Alghannam, the Saudi analyst, said that Riyadh had "moved away from large-scale expeditionary warfare toward a model focused on deterrence, selective pressure, and political outcomes". He said Riyadh learned that "proxies and firepower alone cannot stabilise Yemen" and was trying to use a defensive posture against the UAE to achieve a political settlement rather than "dominate Yemen militarily". 'This battle is not like when the Houthis were hiding in the mountains. The Saudis have an advantage' - Farea al-Muslimi, researcher Al-Muslimi told MEE that was starkly different to when "the Houthis were hiding in the mountains. The Saudis have an advantage." "The STC is vulnerable to Saudi air power in a way the Houthis were not. Any Bedouin knows how to fight in the desert," he said. Ardemagni said that the STC was now entering its "existential battle" for the establishment of a southern state. "In the short to medium term, it may negotiate some local, limited arrangements with Saudi-backed forces on border governance, but I don't think it can step back from its original goal." An STC official told MEE that while the group was ready for de-escalatory talks, it would not hesitate to defend its territory. Houthi wild card Analysts are already saying that the Houthis have emerged as the single biggest winner from the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. "With this level of disunity, opposed narratives and distrust between Emirati and Saudi backed forces in Yemen, who will dare to imagine, from this moment on, a joint ground operation to regain Hodeida or Sanaa?" said Ardemagni. After failing to dislodge the group, Saudi Arabia entered a truce with the Houthis in 2022. Although that UN agreement has expired, the lull in fighting has largely held, with China mediating a restoration of diplomatic ties between Tehran and Riyadh in 2023 that helped keep tensions with the Houthis in check. Saudi Arabia was left largely unscathed when the Houthis attacked vessels in the Red Sea in what they said was solidarity with besieged Palestinians in Gaza following the Hamas-led 7 October 2023 attack on southern Israel. In fact, Saudi Arabia lobbied Trump to stop American attacks on the Houthis before he visited the Gulf in May 2025, MEE revealed. 'The withdrawal of UAE personnel does not signal disengagement by Abu Dhabi' - Mohammed al-Basha, analyst Relations between the Houthis and Saudis are still peppered with deep mistrust. Saudi analysts regularly note Houthi rhetoric that questions the kingdom's sovereignty over some of its territory and are still on guard for Houthi drone and missile strikes. However, the two sides have engaged in close talks and in December reached an agreement for a major prisoner exchange. Muslimi said Saudi Arabia's outreach to the Houthis worsened tensions with the UAE. "The UAE was not happy being sidelined by the negotiations between the Houthis and Saudis," he told MEE, adding that he did not rule out a tactical arrangement between the Houthis and Saudi Arabians against the UAE. "The de-facto ceasefire between the Houthis and the Emiratis will collapse," he said. "I wouldn’t be surprised if the Houthis launched a few drones and rockets at the UAE," he said. The last Houthi attack on Abu Dhabi occurred in January 2022, sparking concerns about the city-state's status as an international business hub. A Gulf analyst close to Saudi decision makers told MEE that Riyadh would be "happy to see" the STC and Houthis fight each other, but does not want to unleash another round of regional chaos for fear it could blow back in their face. "The Saudis just want quiet on their border," the analyst said. Yemen War Rayhan Uddin News Post Date Override 0 Update Date Mon, 05/04/2020 - 21:19 Update Date Override 0