CHINA’S economic policy direction for 2026 could create significant trade and investment opportunities for developing economies, but the Philippines risks being left behind unless it recalibrates its economic engagement with Beijing, said geopolitical analyst Herman Tiu Laurel. In a paper delivered during a media forum, Tiu Laurel, president of the based think tank Asian Century Philippines Strategic Studies Institute, said China’s newly concluded Central Economic Work Conference signals an expansion of domestic demand and a further opening of its economy to imports — developments that should favor agricultural and export-oriented countries such as the Philippines. ”China’s 2026 Economic Work Plan clearly points to increased domestic consumption and greater import demand, particularly for food and consumer goods,” said Tiu Laurel. “These are areas where the Philippines has capacity, but where it has steadily lost ground.” China held its annual Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing from Dec. 10, setting the policy framework for 2026, the first year of its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030). The plan calls for more proactive macroeconomic measures, support for advanced manufacturing and technology, and policies aimed at stimulating domestic consumption. Tiu Laurel said these measures continue the trajectory seen under China’s 14th Five-Year Plan, during which Beijing diversified its trade away from the United States and expanded economic ties with Asia and the Global South, resulting in a record trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion. While many Asean economies are positioned to benefit from China’s import-driven growth, Tiu Laurel said the Philippines stands out for its weakening trade performance. Philippine merchandise exports contracted by 0.5 percent in 2024, according to trade data cited in the paper, while Vietnam’s exports grew by 14.3 percent. Cambodia recorded export growth of 15 to 17 percent, and Thailand’s exports to China expanded by about 10 percent. ”The contrast is stark,” Tiu Laurel said. “Our neighbors are aligning their production and export strategies with China’s expanding consumer market, while Philippine exports to China continue to decline.” He cited the sharp fall in banana exports as a key example. The Philippines shipped around 1.4 million metric tons of bananas to China in 2019, making it Asean’s top supplier at the time. By 2024, exports had dropped to roughly 460,000 metric tons. Tourism data reflect a similar pattern. Chinese tourist arrivals to the Philippines fell from 1.8 million in 2019 to about 330,000 in 2024, translating to an estimated $1.5-billion loss in tourism revenues, according to figures cited by Tiu Laurel. Other Southeast Asian countries have recovered Chinese tourist arrivals more rapidly. ”These declines have real economic consequences,” Tiu Laurel said, noting that reduced exports and tourism earnings contribute to slower growth and job losses at home. He said China’s new economic plan offers a potential opening if Manila adopts a more pragmatic approach. ”China’s expansion of domestic demand will require reliable suppliers of food, agricultural products and consumer goods,” he said. “The opportunity is there, but benefiting from it requires reengagement, not retreat.” He added that the Philippines needs to refocus on economic priorities, including restoring agricultural market access, aligning trade promotion with China’s consumption-driven sectors and insulating economic policy from geopolitical tensions. ”The opening is clear,” Tiu Laurel said. “Whether the Philippines steps through it will depend on policy will and strategic clarity.”