Pakistan’s oil marketing sector risks heading towards forced exits and disorderly consolidation if structural fragmentation is not addressed in time, warned Mountain Ventures, a Dubai-based energy and technology-related advisory service provider, in its latest report titled Pakistan OMCs Review 2025 . The report drew parallels with the US airline industry, which suffered collapsing margins, deferred investment, repeated bankruptcies, and forced mergers. “Pakistan’s OMC sector now exhibits the same structural warning signs,” read the report. “There are 44 licensed OMCs, yet 60% of volumes sit with just three players, 95% with ten, and 98.5% with twenty. The remaining long tail lacks scale and competes primarily through discounting, eroding margins across the sector and weakening incentives to invest in compliance, systems, and retail infrastructure. “Consolidation will happen regardless. The only question is whether it occurs early and orderly, or later through financial stress, exits, and market disruption,” read the report. Pakistan’s oil marketing sector recorded solid volume growth in 2025, with sales of gasoline, gasoil, and hi-octane rising by approximately 10% YoY from 14.0 MMTs [million metric tons] to 15.4 MMTs, supported by vehicle growth and stable underlying demand. “Despite this, industry economics continued to tighten, reflecting regulated pricing, persistent discounting, and rising capital requirements,” read the report. The report noted that ongoing uncertainty around Infrastructure Development Cess, and sales tax recoverability have elevated working-capital requirements, while regulatory emphasis on digitisation and enforcement signalled a shift toward compliance-linked margin relief rather than uniform adjustments. It highlighted that operationally, owned storage capacity and retail network quality emerged as key constraints on sustainable growth. “Outlet expansion constrained by gasoline storage is increasing the importance of network optimisation over pure footprint expansion.” The report was of the view that the entry of global brands, including Aramco, Gunvor and Wafi Energy’s is likely to influence consumers through standards and experience, as fuel pricing remains regulated. “These players are expected to emphasise strong branding, tighter operational controls, and more consistent retail formats, raising expectations around site quality, service, and product integrity.” “Looking ahead, consolidation, rationalisation, and capital discipline are expected to play a larger role in shaping the sector’s next phase, with outcomes determined less by demand growth and more by scale, balance-sheet resilience, and execution capability,” it said.