AI bubble, won-dollar volatility, Fed policy to test Seoul's stock market in 2026

Concerns over an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble, the weakening won and potential changes in U.S. interest rate policy loom as major variables — so-called “gray rhinos” — that could shake the Korean stock market in 2026, analysts said Thursday. A gray rhino is an economic term referring to a danger that is plainly visible and widely recognized, yet frequently underestimated or inadequately prepared for. It contrasts with a “black swan,” which denotes a shock that emerges without warning. Questions surrounding a possible AI bubble are expected to remain a decisive factor for global technology stocks. Should major tech firms continue their aggressive cloud infrastructure spending as planned, investor anxiety could subside, allowing semiconductor shares to gain additional upward momentum. Experts caution, however, that investment fueled by heavy borrowing could undermine market confidence. Goldman Sachs estimates that capital spending by the five largest cloud computing and storage service providers — Amazon, Google (Alphabet), Meta, Microsoft and Oracle — will total $47