There’s no doubting the charisma of its leader, but Reform UK lacks the depth and experience needed to govern – and voters are quickly realising that I fear for Nigel Farage. This should be his big year, the make-or-break 2026. Last year his Reform party finally began to top the polls and he was feted by Washington as the UK’s Trump and next prime minister . So how now would he turn a sheaf of poll results into a disciplined election-winning machine? Or has he for the past year merely been doing what most third parties do at this stage of a parliament, which is feast on the misfortune of their opponents? The polls sent Reform surging into a steady lead last spring. It held that position through the summer, with a high of 29% according to YouGov, and 33% according to More in Common. But pollsters now suggest that Farage’s party may have peaked – with YouGov’s December polling showing a drop in its vote share to 26%, its lowest since April. Some of this has been credited to increasing support for the Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and to the joint Lib Dem/Green vote surging to nearly 30%. It seems likely that this confusion will survive through this May’s local elections. Betting in this field is for madmen. Simon Jenkins is a Guardian columnist Continue reading...