Iranian protests are not for 'regime change' but for end to US economic war Submitted by Mohammad Reza Farzanegan on Wed, 12/31/2025 - 16:26 The current protests are not a 'regime collapse' story. They are a call for economic relief and reform from a society pushed to the brink by decades of external economic warfare Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian attends a government meeting as protesters demonstrate against poor economic conditions in Tehran on 31 December 2025 (Reuters) On The record-breaking plunge of the Iranian rial and the subsequent shuttering of markets in Tehran are being viewed by many in the West through a narrow, familiar lens. In Washington and Tel Aviv , the narrative being pushed is one of a "regime on the brink", where economic failure is framed as a precursor to total collapse. However, my empirical research with other colleagues suggests a far more complex reality. What we are witnessing is not a political revolution, but the desperate gasps of a society whose economic buffer, the middle class , has been systematically hollowed out by an inhumane , punitive policy of international isolation. The primary driver of this economic death spiral is no secret. The US weaponis ation of the the global financial system, imposing the "maximum pressure" campaign and targeting Iran’s oil exports has effectively hit at the life savings of every Iranian teacher, nurse, and small business owner. The destructive external pincer Between 2012 and 2019, our study using synthetic control methods found that sanctions led to a staggering average annual reduction of 17 percentage points in the size of Iran's middle class. This wasn't just "economic pressure"; it was a structural demolition. Millions of people who once formed the stable, moderate centre of Iranian society have been demoted into the "newly poor". The regional shadow war with Israel has forced the Iranian state into a permanent 'security-first' posture When basic items, from antibiotics to food staples, become luxuries, the social contract is not just strained, it is broken by external forces. This economic siege is part of a broader geopolitical pincer. The regional shadow war with Israel , characterised by assassinations on Iranian soil and the direct military attacks of US and Israel against Iran in June 2025, have forced the Iranian state into a permanent "security-first" posture. My research on the militarisation of the Iranian economy suggests that these external threats provide the perfect environment for state-linked entities to tighten their grip on remaining resources under the guise of "national defence". This external aggression doesn't facilitate reform; it suffocates it. Furthermore, the recent public statements by Israel’s Mossad , claiming to support protesters "on the ground", serve only to delegitimise the genuine economic grievances of the Iranian people. Such interventions allow the most hawkish elements of the international community to frame a popular demand for economic relief as an uprising against the state, thereby justifying further escalation and economic siege. The paradox of instability Western policy makers often assume that if you squeeze a society hard enough, it will result in a clean "regime change". Iran: Seventy years on from the coup driven by the West, Iranians are still suffering Read More » My joint research using two decades of data debunks this (see also a webinar about this). We found that while high-intensity sanctions actually decrease the risk of organised civil war and coups, partly due to a nationalist "rally-around-the-flag" effect against external enemies, they simultaneously act as a pressure cooker for civil disorder and terrorism. Sanctions don't lead to a new government; they lead to a more polarised and insecure society. When a citizen sees the currency lose half its value while news of systemic corruption breaks, the opportunity cost of rebellion drops to near zero. In a highly connected digital society, these disparities become impossible to hide, as we have validated in our recent publication . The "poor middle class" can now see in real-time the gap between their own suffering and the elites who profit from the shadow economy created by sanctions. Demanding a future, not a collapse It is critical to distinguish between the Iranian people’s call for institutional reform and the Western desire for state failure . The tragedy of the current US-Israeli strategy is that it has destroyed the very segment of society most capable of pushing for a stable, reformist, and less confrontational future The Iranians currently in the streets are not asking for their country to be dismantled; they are asking for the restoration of their dignity, for economic relief, and for an end to the collective punishment that has hollowed out their lives. The tragedy of the current US-Israeli strategy is that it has destroyed the very segment of society, the middle class, most capable of pushing for a stable, reformist, and less confrontational future. By weakening this centre, external powers alongside domestic structural problems such as high corruption have removed the moderate buffer that typically values incremental change over chaotic violence. The rial may eventually stabilise, but the social fabric cannot be repaired so easily. Between a political system prioritising survival and a western alliance utilising economic warfare, the Iranian people are being squeezed out of their own future. The data shows that the current crisis is a symptom of a society under siege, and until the policy of collective punishment is replaced by genuine diplomacy, the cycle of instability will only deepen. The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Middle East Eye. Inside Iran Opinion Post Date Override 0 Update Date Mon, 05/04/2020 - 21:29 Update Date Override 0