How Israel’s recognition of Somaliland risks destabilising the region Submitted by Bashir Mohamed Caato on Fri, 01/02/2026 - 14:28 Experts say the move could ignite domestic strife, further militarise the Horn of Africa and spur insurgencies in neighbouring countries A man holds a flag of Somaliland in front of the Hargeisa War Memorial monument in Hargeisa on 7 November 2024 (Luis Tato/AFP) Off In the heart of Hargeisa, thousands took to the streets peacefully on 26 December after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced he was formally recognising Somaliland as an independent country. Unlike southern Somalia, Somaliland has enjoyed relative stability since the collapse of Somalia’s central government in 1991. Following its declaration of independence from Somalia that year, Hargeisa has conducted direct elections, established its own currency, and built its own military and other state institutions. However, that stability now faces dangerous uncertainty. Israel’s decision has drawn immediate attention from both local and regional actors, including the armed group al-Shabab, which has vowed to resist any Israeli presence in Somaliland. Similarly, Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi in Yemen has stated that any Israeli presence in Somaliland would be considered a legitimate military target. Former Somali spy chief Fahad Yasin told Middle East Eye that the territory’s authorities will struggle to contain security threats alone. “Somaliland does not exercise effective control over large portions of its territory, particularly in the northeastern regions,” he said. “Any move by Israel would inevitably generate heightened tension and insecurity, and could encourage militant groups such as Islamic State and al-Shabaab to further destabilise Somaliland.” Despite functioning as a de facto independent state for three decades, Somaliland has not received widespread international recognition. Israel remains the only country to have formally recognised Somaliland as an independent state, a move that has drawn strong condemnation from countries around the world. In recent years, Somaliland’s territorial control has diminished significantly. This contraction followed the decision by Somalia’s federal government to recognise the Sool and Sanaag regions - long claimed by Somaliland - as a new federal member state aligned with a unified Somalia. 'Somaliland does not exercise effective control over large portions of its territory' - Fahad Yasin, former Somalia spy chief This newly established Northeastern State constitutes approximately 60 percent of Somaliland’s total landmass and its recognition is widely regarded as a major setback to the Hargeisa authorities’ longstanding ambition. Meanwhile, in the northwest of Somaliland, Awdal province has witnessed resistance against the idea of breaking away from Somalia, with protests reflecting deep-seated demands for greater autonomy and closer alignment with the federal government. Earlier this year, there were violent clashes in Borama where local demonstrators declared an “Awdal State” and displayed Somali flags, evidence that a movement challenging Hargeisa’s authority was growing in the province. Shortly after Israel’s announcement, protests again erupted opposing move, with a youthful crowd chanting slogans against Israel and waving Palestinian flags, raising concerns that recent developments could further exacerbate internal political tensions. “The clans in Awdal and the newly formed Northeastern State could receive both local and foreign support and potentially launch an armed rebellion against Somaliland, a development that could lead to serious instability within the region,” Yasin warned. Threat to regional stability Somaliland occupies a strategic position along a major maritime corridor on the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, through which approximately 30 percent of global trade passes. While its long-standing pursuit of independence is well known, encouraging Israeli recognition is an exceptionally risky gambit. In particular, the emergence of Israel as its principal external backer raises serious security concerns for countries also on the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. By aligning openly with Israel, which is more a pariah than ever following its genocide in Gaza, Somaliland risks inheriting Israel’s adversaries without inheriting its military deterrence capacity. Protests erupt in breakaway region of Somaliland after Israeli recognition Read More » Any perception that Somaliland is being integrated into a new security architecture linked to Israel risks further militarising the strategic waterway as it could prompt Israel’s local enemies to quickly escalate hostile actions there. The Houthi movement, officially known as Ansar Allah, caused serious disruption in response to the Gaza war by targeting ships with alleged Israeli links in the Red Sea. Somalia’s president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, said this week that Israel’s recognition of Somaliland was primarily driven by three key considerations: Somaliland’s potential accession to the Abraham Accords; the relocation of Palestinians in Gaza; and most importantly the establishment of an Israeli military base along the Gulf of Aden. Many countries view this as a precursor to an Israeli strategic presence near the Bab al-Mandeb straight, which is deeply unsettling for Red Sea states that already regard Israel as a threat to their national security. “Any Israeli footprint in Somaliland would not be perceived as limited to countering the Houthis; it would be interpreted as part of a broader posture aimed at projecting power against surrounding Arab states,” Samira Gaid, a Horn of Africa security analyst, told Middle East Eye. “It is precisely Israel’s recognition that creates this vulnerability, as it risks transforming Somaliland into a forward operating environment for Israeli interests.” A 'rogue state' The Horn of Africa has increasingly become an extension of strategic competition rooted in the Middle East in recent years. Red Sea and Gulf powers have systematically projected their rivalries into the region through the development of port infrastructure, the establishment of military bases, the exercise of financial leverage, and the cultivation of political patronage networks. The recognition of Somaliland by Israel is believed to not only align with this trend but introduces a “rogue state” into an already crowded and fragile region. “Rather than remaining a marginal political dispute, Somaliland is now positioned within a broader contest involving Israel on one side versus Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, other Gulf states. This is a dangerous shift,” Gaid said. 'Somaliland is now positioned within a broader contest involving Israel on one side vs Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, other Gulf states' - Samira Gaid, analyst She believes that Saudi Arabia and Egypt would see any Israeli foothold near the Red Sea as a direct challenge to their security interests, particularly given Egypt’s sensitivity around the Suez Canal and Saudi Arabia’s concern with Red Sea militarisation. Iran, meanwhile, will interpret Israeli recognition as an aggressive move. Critics of Israel’s recognition also argue that the decision undermines established norms concerning state sovereignty and territorial integrity. In the Horn of Africa, the development has sparked discussions about whether Israel’s move could set a destabilising precedent for the region. Observers have warned that it may embolden separatist or self-determination movements elsewhere, particularly in countries grappling with internal conflicts. Analysts like Gaid also believe that countries in the region such as Ethiopia, which has long faced armed insurgencies seeking greater autonomy or self-determination, could be especially vulnerable. Legal questions Appearing before a parliamentary committee, Yair Lapid, an Israeli opposition leader, said Netanyahu’s decision to extend recognition to Somaliland did not receive approval from either the government or the security cabinet. “It was a decision of the prime minister’s office,” Lapid said. The move has also drawn legal scrutiny. Analysts note that the decision appears to contravene principles enshrined in the United Nations, and the African Union charters, both of which emphasise respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of member states. Legal experts argue that Israel’s recognition of Somaliland may also lack the necessary legal validation under Israel’s own domestic governance procedures. “If the recognition of Somaliland was signed solely by the Israeli prime minister without the approval of the cabinet or the Knesset, then it lacks formal government authorisation and could be viewed as a unilateral political decision,” said Mohamed Abdi Kadiye, an international law expert. Analysis News Post Date Override 0 Update Date Mon, 05/04/2020 - 21:19 Update Date Override 0