KARACHI: The Pakistan Business Forum (PBF) has stated that Pakistan’s cotton sector has entered a phase of gradual recovery during the 2025 season, supported by improved crop arrivals and better market absorption. Consolidated national cotton arrival figures up to 31 December 2025 indicate that arrivals have reached approximately 5.43 million bales, compared with about 4.55 million bales during the same period last year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of around 18 percent. PBF South Punjab Chairman, Malik Talat Suhail noted that the recovery has been driven primarily by higher inflows from key cotton-growing regions of Punjab, alongside stable contributions from Sindh. The increase in arrivals has translated into higher pressing volumes, while factory-held stocks remain below half a million bales, suggesting that supply is being absorbed by the domestic market without excessive accumulation. Limited export movement during the season further reflects a cautious approach aimed at ensuring local availability. Despite this improvement, PBF emphasized that the current level of domestic cotton production remains insufficient to meet national demand. “Pakistan’s textile and spinning industry requires an estimated 14 to 15 million bales of cotton annually to operate efficiently”. Talat Suhail said even with the better performance recorded in 2025, domestic availability covers only a portion of this requirement, making imports an unavoidable component of the supply mix. This structural gap continues to place pressure on production costs and foreign exchange resources. The Forum stressed that addressing this shortfall requires consistent, long-term policy support rather than short-term interventions. Improving yield per acre remains a priority, as Pakistan’s cotton productivity continues to lag behind potential benchmarks. Enhancing access to quality seed, strengthening pest management practices, and improving water efficiency can help raise output without a significant expansion in cultivated area. PBF also highlighted the importance of rationalizing the overall cost structure faced by cotton growers. “In this context, the Forum noted that reviewing the existing 18 percent sales tax on cottonseed and oil cake could improve farm-level economics”, as these by-products form an important part of grower income. While not a standalone solution, such fiscal adjustments, combined with agronomic improvements, could encourage greater cotton cultivation and support a gradual increase in output during the 2026 season. Looking ahead, PBF believes that if the current recovery trend marked by an approximately 18 percent year-on-year rise in arrivals is reinforced through stable pricing signals, improved productivity, and supportive policies, Pakistan can progressively reduce its reliance on imported cotton. Although complete self-sufficiency may not be immediately achievable, narrowing the demand-supply gap would strengthen the textile value chain, stabilize raw material availability, and enhance export competitiveness. “The 2025 season has shown that cotton recovery is possible,” Suhail stated. “The focus now must be on sustaining this momentum through realistic policy support and productivity-led growth to ensure further improvement in 2026.” Copyright Business Recorder, 2026