RANA Sanaullah, the prime minister’s adviser on political affairs, has proposed a way out of the current quagmire where the ‘big five’ could sit and find common ground, following confidence-building measures, but his statement needs to be examined to ascertain whether it is legitimate cause for optimism or a ‘non-starter’. Don’t get me wrong. As a long-term believer in political reconciliation being crucial to creating the right environment for investment in the economy to grow it and to reduce the scale of abject poverty in the country, I would like to believe Rana Sanaullah’s suggestion is a viable one and could form the basis for dialogue. But is it? First of all, let’s see what he meant by the big five. In a TV interview, he spelt it out as “my leaders” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Nawaz Sharif, President Asif Ali Zardari, former prime minister-PTI founder Imran Khan and “you know who the fifth is” without naming anyone. His list of those who may need to smoke the peace pipe points to the fate of his suggestion. As far as the establishment is concerned, the military spokesman has been on record saying that his institution is not the one to engage in a dialogue with the imprisoned leader and if the latter desired talks, the government should be approached. For his part, Imran Khan has also so far unequivocally stated that he sees no point in talks with the government and the only meaningful dialogue that’s possible is directly with the military establishment as it is the sole decision-maker. So, for Rana Sahib’s suggestion to gain traction, two of his ‘big five’ players will need to shift from their current positions and unless he knows something about a change of mind in either one or both quarters, a headway can be wished but not evidenced. Unless Rana Sanaullah knows something about a change of mind in either one or both quarters, a headway can be wished but not evidenced. If we zoom out of the tight focus, any attempt at reconciliation seems even more unlikely, simply because Imran Khan has taken a maximalist position, whether you agree with him or not, that he was cheated out of power in the February 2024 elections and any discussion or dialogue must include a pathway straight back to power for him. Regardless of the merit of his argument, the ground reality can be gauged from the passage of the 26th and 27th Amendments to the Constitution, with yet another one, the 28th, said to be around the corner, as well as from last May’s clash with India, leading to the elevation to field marshal and Chief of Defence Forces, of the four-star army chief in addition to his own role. Observers note that he is now more comfortably ensconced in power than ever before, and as one journalist said, he has taken Pakistan from a pariah state to a player on the regional and global stage. No matter how precarious that status may be, given the fickle nature of US President Trump’s temperament, he still mentions with ‘admiration’, ‘my favourite field marshal’, and for now it weighs heavily in the latter’s favour. As far as the civilian part of the hybrid set-up is concerned, it knows well what the ground reality was before, during and after the 2024 elections, and how it came into sharing some power and glory too after the May 2025 clash with India. The civilian part so far seems to have made little headway in the one thing it was apparently tasked to accomplish by the senior partner. And that was to prepare a viable alternative to PTI’s narrative, with the latter having taken a head start and maintaining its lead — and here facts don’t matter half as much as what the support base is willing to believe. The government is still struggling, though one can see the effort and the expenditure that is going into the area. It still needs time to catch up, if at all it can. It can only hope that Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz Sharif’s administration is able to deliver over the term of the current parliament in its support base, the country’s most populous province, and revive the PML-N’s fortunes, and that elections are not held before that for whatever reason. I suspect it will have to live with the fear that its fate in Punjab may mirror the PPP’s when PML-N itself displaced it. Once the electorate’s hearts and minds have been lost, the fall from grace has a degree of permanence to it; performance and governance, too, matter to a point and not beyond. Perceptions matter more. One need only look at the abysmal performance of the Usman Buzdar government in Punjab during the PTI’s time in power. The PTI support in the province has more to do with the success of the narrative of being wronged rather than its performance and governance whilst in office. At the end of the day, the state of the economy affects everyone. The team of economic managers may have stabilised the economy, but investment, growth and job creation are still insignificant. MoUs don’t translate into positive economy numbers. Local and foreign investors remain risk-averse and there can be no perceived risk greater than the uncertainty triggered by political upheaval. Politics is the art of the possible. But in our case, uncertainty will remain till principles and personal issues, as manifest in unsavoury attacks, are not separated; till all those in government or in opposition are willing to show accommodation. In asking each party to step back from confrontation, I have faced criticism from those who say I am equating usurpers with victims. I am not. All I am saying is that you have tried and failed to effect change via street power. Recent court verdicts lend credence to this view. Is it time to try a change of political strategy to take a different route to your goals? If you think it isn’t, then any reconciliation is a pipe dream. The writer is a former editor of Dawn. abbas.nasir@hotmail.com Published in Dawn, January 4th, 2026