With U.S. mid-term elections set to take place later this year, attention will begin to turn to Donald Trump’s lame duck period and who will succeed a president that has upended the United States’ relationships with allies and adversaries alike. For policy makers in Seoul, the question of Trump’s successor touches on whether the United States under a new administration might return to a more traditional role on security and trade policy or whether the changes we’ve seen are more permanent. It also holds implications for whether policy makers will need to continue making concessions to the Trump administration or can take firmer stands as Trump’s term approaches its end. Despite the inclination to view Vice President JD Vance as a strong contender to succeed Trump, history would suggest he faces a difficult road ahead. The last sitting U.S. vice president to win the presidency was George H.W. Bush in 1988. Prior to Bush, the last sitting vice president to win the presidency was Calvin Coolidge in 1920. The most recent vice president to run while still in office was Al Gore, wh