Federal Minister for Planning, Development and Special Initiatives Ahsan Iqbal has flagged a fundamental flaw in the National Finance Commission (NFC) Award, warning that the heavy reliance on population as a criterion for resource allocation discourages population control by rewarding provinces with larger populations, a distortion the minister believes requires serious debate and reform. In a video message released on Monday, the federal minister shared that the country’s first-ever Digital Census, conducted in 2023, revealed many key insights, “some encouraging, some concerning”. “Our population growth rate has increased from 2.4% in the past census to 2.55%. We are one of the fastest-growing populations in the world. This is alarming because this kind of growth rate is typically seen in the least developed countries in Africa,” said Iqbal. He maintained that economic development is closely related to population growth. “Rapid population growth strains resources and affects human development. It can also produce a generation with challenges in skills and education.” “So this is a big challenge. For this, the government is now making a national effort in terms of population planning.” Ahsan noted that population is a provincial subject, making coordination essential. “A challenge arises in the NFC award, where 82% of the resources are allocated based on population. So, if every province has to obtain this share based on its population, then what incentive does any province have to decrease its population? They are interested in increasing the population to get a larger share. “So this is a distortion in our NFC award, which needs to be discussed,” he said. “Our population has reached 240 million, and if it continues to increase at this rate, then we will reach about 400 million by 2050. Which is a big challenge for us,” Ahsan concluded. During the first meeting of the Commission held on December 4, it was decided to form several working groups to deliberate on various aspects of the forthcoming NFC award. The Commission had tentatively planned to convene again on January 8 or January 15. However, sources said the working groups have made limited progress so far, making it difficult to consolidate recommendations within the proposed timeframe. As a result, the next session of the Commission may be delayed until preliminary reports are finalised. The NFC is mandated to build consensus on the distribution of financial resources between the federation and the provinces — a technically complex process requiring extensive analysis and negotiations among stakeholders. Any delay in meetings could prolong discussions on the next NFC award, which is critical for both federal and provincial fiscal planning, sources added. Earlier, KP Chief Minister Sohail Afridi accused the federal government of stalling development in the merged tribal districts by failing to disburse funds under the NFC resource-distribution formula for the current fiscal year. The Ministry of Finance, however, rejected the allegations, stating that KP continues to receive its due share, including the additional allocation for the war on terror. Provincial NFC shares are released on a fortnightly basis, and no outstanding liabilities exist in this regard, the ministry added.