As India heads into the Union Budget 2026, Dalal Street is watching closely for signals that could shape the next market move. After a volatile year marked by global risks, US tariff worries and slowing domestic consumption, investors are not expecting big giveaways — but they do want stability, fiscal discipline and targeted growth support. With the fiscal deficit already at 62% of the FY26 target, the government’s room to spend is limited. Still, markets are hoping for a capex push in defence, railways and green energy, along with possible incentives for new-age sectors like AI and space. The biggest wild card remains capital gains tax. Even a small tweak here could spark a rally.