ISLAMABAD: The World Economic Forum (WEF) finds geo-economic confrontation as the top risk for 2026, followed by interstate conflict, extreme weather, societal polarisation, and misinformation and disinformation, its report said on Wednesday. The Global Risks Report 2026 , a premier source of original global risks data for Switzerland-based WEF, warned that the multilateral system is under pressure. “Declining trust, diminishing transparency and respect for the rule of law, along with heightened protectionism, are threatening longstanding international relations, trade and investment and increasing the propensity for conflict,” it read. Geo-economic confrontation topped the near-term rankings, with 18 per cent of respondents viewing it as the risk most likely to trigger a global crisis in 2026. It was also ranked first for severity over the next two years, up eight positions from last year. State-based armed conflict followed in second position for 2026, dropping to fifth position in the two-year timeframe. Short-term (2 years) and long-term (10 years) global risks outlook. — WEF Global Risks Report 2026 In a world of rising rivalries and prolonged conflicts, confrontation threatened supply chains and broader global economic stability as well as the cooperative capacity required to address economic shocks. When it comes to the geopolitical outlook, 68pc of respondents expected a “multipolar or fragmented order” — in which “middle and great powers contest, set and enforce regional rules and norms” — over the next decade, up four points from last year, the report said. Economic risks showed the largest collective increase in the two-year outlook. Economic downturn and inflation risks both surged eight positions, to 11th and 21st respectively, while “asset bubble burst” rose by seven ranks to 18th position. “Over the next two years, mounting debt sustainability concerns coupled with potential economic bubbles – in a context of rising geoeconomic confrontation – could herald a new phase of volatility.” Misinfo, disinfo 2nd-highest short-term risk Misinformation and disinformation ranked second on the two-year outlook, while cyber insecurity ranked sixth. “Adverse outcomes of artificial intelligence” (AI) showed the starkest trajectory, climbing from 30th in the two-year horizon to fifth in the 10-year horizon, reflecting anxiety about implications for labour markets, societies and security. Societal polarisation ranked fourth in 2026 and third by 2028, while inequality is in seventh position in the two- and 10-year outlooks. Lower ranking risks by severity, short term (2 years) and long term (10 years) . — WEF Global Risks Report 2026 Inequality was also selected by respondents as the most interconnected global risk for a second year running. Economic downturn was the second-most interconnected issue that underlined concerns about cost-of-living pressures and “ K-shaped economies ” — in which there is a growing disparity between the rich and the poor — becoming entrenched. With short-term concerns overtaking long-term objectives, environmental risks declined in ranking in the two-year outlook. Extreme weather dropped from second to fourth, pollution from sixth to ninth, while critical change to Earth systems and biodiversity loss fell seven and five positions respectively. All environmental risks declined in severity score, representing an absolute shift, not just a relative one. Misinformation and disinformation were of particular concern in the online world. The integrity of online news and broader information was increasingly under threat as distinguishing between authentic and synthetic content, whether video, audio, or written, was becoming progressively more difficult. While citizens had traditionally relied on government institutions, academia and the media to obtain and process information, widespread use of social media was reshaping the ways in which information was accessed and interpreted. “Recent elections in the United States, Ireland, the Netherlands, Pakistan, Japan, India and Argentina have all had to contend with such fabricated content on social media, depicting fictional events or discrediting political candidates, blurring the line between fact and fiction,” the report stated. Extreme weather top risk in next 10 years Yet, over the 10-year period, they remained the most severe — the top three being extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and critical change to Earth systems. Three-quarters of respondents expected a turbulent or stormy environmental outlook, the most negative of any category. Global risks ranked by severity, short term (2 years) and long term (10 years). — WEF Global Risks Report 2026 The outlook from leaders and experts showed deep concern. Half of those surveyed anticipated a “turbulent or stormy outlook” over the next two years, up 14pc points from last year. A further 40pc expected the two-year outlook to be “unsettled” at the very least, while 9pc expected “stability” and 1pc predicted “calm”. Predicting the outlook for the next 10 years, 57pc expected a turbulent or stormy world, 32pc expected things to be unsettled, 10pc predicted stability and 1pc anticipated calm. “The Global Risks Report offers an early warning system as the age of competition compounds global risks – from geoeconomic confrontation to unchecked technology to rising debt – and changes our collective capacity to address them. But none of these risks are a foregone conclusion,” said WEF Managing Director Saadia Zahidi. “The challenges highlighted in the report underscore both the scale of the potential perils we face and our shared responsibility to shape what comes next.” The report analysed risks across three timeframes: immediate (2026); short-to-medium term (the next two years); and long term (the next 10 years). In the near term, armed conflict, the weaponisation of economic tools and societal fragmentation are colliding. As these immediate risks intensify, longer-term challenges from technological acceleration to environmental decline are also creating knock-on effects. ‘New competitive order taking shape’ “A new competitive order is taking shape as major powers seek to secure their spheres of interest,” said WEF President and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Borge Brende. “This shifting landscape, where cooperation looks markedly different than it did yesterday, reflects a pragmatic reality: collaborative approaches and the spirit of dialogue remain essential.” Rising societal and political polarisation is intensifying pressures on democratic systems, as extremist social, cultural and political movements challenge institutional resilience and public trust. The growing prevalence of “streets versus elites” narratives reflected deepening disillusionment with traditional governance structures, leaving many citizens feeling excluded from political decision-making processes and increasingly skeptical that policy-making can deliver tangible improvements to livelihoods. Across the world, there were deep divisions between those who were trying to preserve one value system and the institutions built around it, and others who held opposing views. Groups that had not benefited from the prevailing political, societal and economic orders were playing a more pivotal political role. Last year’s Global Risk Report revealed an increasingly fractured global landscape, where escalating geopolitical, environmental, societal and technological challenges threaten stability and progress.