From Iran to Venezuela, Trump toys with in 'in-and-out' military options Submitted by Sean Mathews on Wed, 01/14/2026 - 20:01 By not committing troops or state-building, the US leader is able to maximise how he deploys the US military US President Donald Trump speaks during a bill signing in the White House's Oval Office in Washington, DC, on 14 January 2026 (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images/AFP) Off As US President Donald Trump weighs strikes on Iran , he is chasing the high from a series of “in-and-out” military operations like the recent US attack on Venezuela, experts say. For Iran, that is bad news, because its violent crackdown on demonstrators comes as Trump has been able to claim victories from a bevy of interventions at minimal cost, for now. “Swift tactical success and lack of domestic pushback, even among most of the non-interventionist Maga camp…have left Trump emboldened and confident in this ‘in-and-out’ approach to intervention,” Will Smith, an expert with the reimagining US grand strategy programme at the Stimson Centre, told Middle East Eye. Andrew Curtis, a defence expert and former air force officer, said, “What worries me for Trump is that when you see successful military intervention like we saw in Venezuela, it sparks thoughts like ‘what else can I do with this toy that I have at my disposal’.” Reuters reported on Wednesday that Trump is weighing strikes on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij paramilitary sites. Meanwhile, Qatar has confirmed the US pulled some personnel from al-Udeid air base, which was struck by Iran in June after US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. But Trump appeared to walk back the risks of intervention on Wednesday, saying that the killing of protesters had stopped and that the administration would "watch and see what the process is" in Iran. Trump had conditioned his willingness to strike on how the Iranian government responds to protests. Trump kick-started the year by sending US special forces to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. By some estimates, the US has around 20 percent of its total deployed warships operating in the Caribbean. Experts say Trump sees them as leverage as he looks to “run” Venezuela through the looming threat of further military intervention. Low-cost regime change Neil Melvin, international security director at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), says that on the one hand, the fact that the US is able to bounce between so many interventions at once signals its unparalleled “global reach". The US’s top foes have not been able to keep up. For example, Russia abandoned its ally, former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, as his government collapsed in the face of rebels because it was tied down by fighting in Ukraine. The US’s only true peer competitor, China, has supplied air defence batteries to Iran, but its military is laser-focused on Taiwan, and the Chinese are more averse to military adventurism. 'The Trump administration is pursuing a low cost model of regime change' - Neil Melvin, Rusi Of course, in Iran and Venezuela, the US has much weaker foes, which makes any comparison deceptive in judging America’s strength, experts say. Venezuela is oil-rich, but years of mismanagement, corruption and US sanctions have bankrupted the country and hollowed out its military. A Russian S-300 missile system was not even connected to radar when US helicopters bore down on Caracas, The New York Times reported. Maduro was captured surrounded by dozens of Cuban military officers, which can only mean that Maduro does not trust his forces with his own security. Iran is not as much of a pushover, but it is bruised and battered. The protests engulfing it arose from anger over the country’s financial collapse amid blistering US sanctions. Some Iranians have reportedly taken up arms against their government, which reports say Israel is supporting. The Islamic Republic is also riddled by corruption and spies. The depth of how far it has become compromised was underscored in June by Israeli precision assassinations on IRGC commanders, senior generals and nuclear scientists. The US bombed Iran's nuclear sites in June with no casualties. Melvin, at Rusi, said that Trump’s ability to wade into so many conflicts without being burdened also reflects a shift in how the US measures success and its own priorities. “The Trump administration is pursuing a low-cost model of regime change. Before it was troops on the ground, nation-building and financial assistance. All of those things really tie a government down,” Melvin told MEE. “This is regime change by proxy, without getting involved in the complicated process of democratic transitions,” he added. Strike targets Trump has shown little preference for a specific Iranian opposition group. He dismissed the idea of meeting Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran' s last shah. Some analysts speculate that the US leader is signalling he wants to cut a deal with the Islamic Republic's elite, as he did with the remnants of Maduro's government. Trump's Venezuela oil gambit depends on a 'swashbuckling' attitude the market lacks Read More » Defence expert Curtis said the different nature of the Venezuela attack and potential Iran strikes means Trump has no practical military constraints, but faces “planning constraints”. “As far as I’m aware, the US military does not have the capacity to do multiple planning concurrently at the level of capturing Maduro and attacking Iran,” he said. “These are operations that would occur in series, not parallel.” In June, the US flew B-2 bombers from Missouri to the Middle East without detection to strike Iranian nuclear sites. Navy submarines in waters south of Iran also fired 30 cruise missiles at the sites. This time, Curtis said, US air strikes are likely to focus on Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities. “They will be doing what they can to stop retaliatory action against US bases in the Middle East.” Iran tensions News Post Date Override 0 Update Date Mon, 05/04/2020 - 21:19 Update Date Override 0