'The weave': Trump believes time is on his side to attack Iran, sources say Submitted by Sean Mathews on Thu, 01/15/2026 - 20:54 Letting protests play out, moving US military assets into place and temporarily 'placating' Gulf states support Trump's wait-and-see approach The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln transits the Strait of Hormuz as a helicopter lifts off from the flight deck, on 19 November 2019 (Stephanie Contreras/US Navy/AFP) Off The Trump administration believes time is on its side, deciding if it should strike Iran as the US president “weaves” up and down an escalation ladder against the Islamic Republic, current and former US officials familiar with discussions on Iran in Washington and the region tell Middle East Eye. The current and former officials briefed on analyses provided to leadership told MEE that the Trump administration does not see the protests against the Islamic Republic dying out anytime soon. The demonstrations erupted in January over anger at Iran’s collapsing economy. They spread to the Islamic Republic’s traditional bastions of support, like rural towns and traders. Iran’s brutal crackdown on demonstrators is shaping up to be the most violent in recent history. According to Reuters, more than 2,600 people may have been killed. “On the horizon are martyrs' commemorations, Ramadan, the anniversary of the [1979] Revolution and Nowruz,” a US official familiar with discussions on Iran told MEE on condition of anonymity. There is a history of tensions running high during holidays, and Iran’s 1979 revolution against the US-backed shah was propelled by anniversaries marking the deaths of protesters. Nowruz, the Iranian New Year, is on 20 March. Ramadan is set to start next month. “This deescalation appears temporary, very much awaiting developments in Iran,” Randa Slim, head of the Stimson Center’s Middle East programme told MEE. “I think Trump is betting this regime can’t sustain itself long-term.” It is also no secret that Trump relishes unpredictability. 'Controlling the temperature' For months, Trump floated launching an attack on Venezuela, keeping Nicolas Maduro's government on edge. When he finally acted, US special forces abducted the Venezuelan leader in a brazen nighttime raid, dragging him back to New York City. “This is the weave,” a former US official told MEE. “Trump turns up the temperature and turns it down. What’s the rush?” 'If we allow this to play out naturally, we will be able to see who is remaining and what the public wants' - Former senior US defence official “The administration believes these protests can’t be put back in the box, and this is the moment for regime change. They seem to be weighing what kind of strikes are most beneficial to support the protests and what kind of change,” they added. Military analysts say that potential targets are Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps bases and those of the volunteer Basij militia. In Venezuela, Trump removed Maduro from power and has opted to work with the remnants of his government to “run” the country from afar. If Trump wants to use the same playbook in Iran, there are reasons to wait, a former senior US defence official who worked on Iran until recently, told MEE. “If we allow this to play out naturally, we will be able to see who is remaining and what the public wants. Let’s face it, we have clandestine operations all over that country along with other countries’ assets. They are influencing these protests. Military action now may merely disrupt that,” they said. The Trump administration has not acknowledged any operations in Iran. Israel’s Channel 14 reported that protesters are being armed by foreign actors. Some of the dead in Iran appear to be security forces killed in clashes with protesters. There are also logistical reasons why Trump may be waiting to strike, experts say. Interceptors and warships The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and its strike group are sailing from the South China Sea to the Middle East, but that journey will take roughly one week. The US also has to prepare for a potential Iranian counter-attack against its military bases in the region and its ally, Israel . Iran launched over 500 ballistic missiles at Israel after it was attacked in June. While the majority were downed by American and Israeli air defence, a significant amount sneaked through, hitting the centre of Tel Aviv. And the US’s stockpile of interceptors like Pac-3’s, SM-3’s, and Thaad interceptors remains low , current and former US officials say. The New York Times reported on Thursday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked Trump on Wednesday to postpone an attack on Iran. Iran responded to the US bombing of its nuclear facilities by launching an attack on al-Udeid airbase in Qatar . The Iranians gave the Americans advance notice, and the damage was limited. 'The Gulf did not believe Trump would go through with bombing Iran. Since he did, the risk now is taken much more seriously' - Former Egyptian official This time, experts say, with Tehran facing massive protests, a US attack could be seen as an existential threat to the Islamic Republic. It could respond more forcefully by targeting US bases across the region or shutting down the Straight of Hormuz through which 20 percent of global oil flows. Trump’s deescalatory language is also attributed to pressure by the US’s Gulf Arab partners - mainly Saudi Arabia and Qatar, along with Turkey - arguing against an attack. On the surface, this is not new. The Gulf states have imposed a ban on US warplanes using their territory or airspace to attack Iran since April 2025, MEE first reported . These same countries all pressed Trump not to attack Iran in June, but he ignored their pleas. A former Egyptian official familiar with the lobbying told MEE that Trump’s June attack has energised the region. “The pressure this time from Saudi Arabia is especially intense,” they told MEE. “Over the summer, I don’t think anyone [in the Gulf] believed Trump would go through with bombing Iran. Since he did, the risk now is taken much more seriously,” they added. 'Signalling' Slim, at the Stimson Center, said Trump is trying to “placate” Gulf allies who are buying billions of dollars worth of AI chips from the US and investing in his family’s business enterprises. “Trump can use the threat of force as a deterrent against the regime. See if it works in the short term and if not, go back to his Gulf allies and say, ‘see it didn’t work,’” she said. 'Everything that has been done is positioning the US to do this' - David Schenker, Washington Institute for Near East Policy The US has military bases in Turkey, the UAE , Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Reuters cited a senior Iranian official saying that Tehran warned the US’s Arab partners they would attack those bases if the US targets Iran. The Gulf states have been on edge about the US’s security commitments to them for years, but those worries were galvanised in September when Israel attacked Hamas negotiators in Doha. To limit the diplomatic fallout of that strike, the US provided Qatar with a non-binding security guarantee . Turkey has a stronger security pledge as a Nato member. David Schenker, a former senior US official now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said security pledges to the Gulf  “may be a consideration” as Trump weighs strikes. “These written documents were likely left deliberately vague to provide the president flexibility. But it opens a can of worms certainly," he said. Trump fuelled speculation he would intervene on Tuesday when he said “help is on its way”, and urged protesters to take over government institutions. He tied his threat of intervention to Iran’s killing of protesters. The next day, he said the killing had stopped and told NBC on Thursday, "We saved a lot of lives". “Everything that has been done is positioning the US to do this (strikes). He is signalling that this is coming,” Schenker said. Iran tensions News Post Date Override 0 Update Date Mon, 05/04/2020 - 21:19 Update Date Override 0