The question raised above would have gnawed at many minds over the weekend, ever since the United States (US) Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs on February 20.On the night of February 2, India time, when Trump posted on his favoured social media platform, Truth Social, that he had reached a long-awaited trade deal with India, it sent a wave of relief among those with stakes in the Indian economy and trade.Tariffs on Indian goods being exported to the US had been a source of throbbing pain ever since Trump announced his so-called reciprocal tariffs on April 2 last year, which meant a 26 percent levy on Indian goods—10 percent base and 16 percent reciprocal—but the latter component was suspended for 90 days, after which the tariff on India was pegged at 25 percent. This doubled to 50 percent with effect from August 27, as Trump imposed punitive tariffs for India’s buying of Russian crude oil.The interim deal of February 2 pegged the tariffs at 18 percent, as India reduced its own levy on many US imports to zero and expressed the intent to buy goods worth $500 billion from the US over five years. This put India in a position of advantage in comparison to countries with which it competes for exporting to the US, such as Vietnam and Bangladesh, and eased pressure on Indian manufacturers exporting everything from textiles to gems and jewellery to the US market.But now that the reciprocal tariffs of April 2 have been struck down by the US Supreme Court, what happens to the deal?Also Read: US Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s tariffsNews agency Reuters reported on Sunday (February 22) citing unnamed sources that India had delayed plans to send a trade delegation to Washington DC this week because of the uncertainty.Of course, India is not alone in this quandary. In fact, Asia, the world’s factory, is full of countries that have entered into trade arrangements with the US to safeguard their exports.Last week alone, on February 17, Japan said it would invest $36 billion in the US. Two days later, Indonesia said it would open up critical sectors to US companies. Earlier, Malaysia, South Korea, Cambodia and Taiwan signed their own deals—making concessions in exchange for lower tariffs. Only China stands apart.Meantime, President Trump has hit back by taking recourse to a different legal provision to impose a global tariff of 10 percent, which he increased to 15 percent a day later.But, as he revises his approach to tariffs, he may have to contend with a trickier issue. The Supreme Court order might require a refund of vast amounts to importers in the US collected since the reciprocal tariffs came into effect. Estimates put this amount in the region of $100 billion. But more than the amount itself, the process of the refund could levy its own cost and pain.“Wouldn’t you think they would have put one sentence in there saying that keep the money or don’t keep the money?” Trump said in response to the Supreme Court order, and hinted that the matter could play out in a court of law for “the next two years”.What the Supreme Court ruling does suggest is that President Trump might no longer be able to make crucial changes to international trade with a post on Truth Social.