Indian rupee likely to test RBI’s 91 line on risk aversion, Asia FX strain

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee may weaken toward the 91-per-dollar mark at Tuesday’s open, a level traders associate with Reserve Bank of India defence, weighed down by fragile risk appetite and a dip in regional currencies. The one-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 90.98-91.02 range versus the US dollar, having slipped 0.1% on Monday to 90.8825. The rupee reversed course on Monday after opening on a firmer note following the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on tariffs. After touching an intraday high of 90.6750, the currency ran into familiar headwinds flagged by bankers — importer demand for immediate dollar payments and near-term hedging, alongside a broader reluctance among market participants to sell the US currency. The imbalance in flows, coupled with expectations of sustained dollar demand through the week, pushed the rupee back toward the weaker side of its recent range. Domestic flows “reasserted themselves”, India Forex Advisors said in a note. Hedging by importers and positioning ahead of lined-up NDF maturities this week pegged back the rupee, it added. What bankers will be watching at Tuesday’s is whether the 91-per-dollar level is breached. The Reserve Bank of India has leaned against moves beyond that mark in the past, creating what traders see a near-term cap on dollar/rupee. Asia equities, currencies struggle Asian currencies and equities retreated on Tuesday, tracking losses on Wall Street, amid investors assessing the implications of fresh uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. Trump warned countries against retreating from recent trade deals after the Supreme Court struck down his emergency tariffs. US Treasury yields fell alongside the selloff in equities, with the 10-year sliding to near 4.02%. The decline in yields offered little support to Asian currencies, which remained under pressure amid risk aversion.