Under-pressure Indian rupee to draw support from yuan-led lift to Asia FX

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee , which has relied on Reserve Bank of India support to hold a key level, looks set to draw relief on Thursday from a broader rally in Asian currencies that has lifted the offshore yuan to a three-year high. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 90.86-90.88 range versus the U.S. dollar, having settled at 90.9475 on Wednesday. The rupee has managed to hold above the 91-per-dollar level largely due to RBI intervention, with traders citing state-run bank dollar sales near that mark. While the sustained defence of 91 has, in a way, managed short-term expectations, it reflects structural pressure on the rupee from ongoing corporate dollar demand and lacklustre portfolio inflows, bankers say. Considering the way the rupee has been trading lately, it’s hard to see much follow-through after the initial uptick, a currency trader at a bank said. “The underperformance versus the rest of Asia is now an accepted narrative,” he said. The offshore yuan climbed past 6.84 per dollar for the first time in nearly three years, buoying other Asian currencies. The rally came despite the People’s Bank of China setting the daily midpoint at 6.9228 per dollar, which is 623 pips weaker than market estimates, marking the largest negative deviation on record. The dollar index dipped amid the yuan rally and pressured by the U.S. tariff turmoil. The U.S. tariff rate for some countries will rise to 15% or higher from the newly imposed 10%, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Wednesday, without naming any specific trading partners or providing further details. The U.S. began collecting a temporary new 10% import tariff on Tuesday, while the Trump administration was working to increase it to 15%, a White House official said, sowing confusion over President Donald Trump’s tariff policies after last week’s Supreme Court defeat.