US-Israel-Iran war: UBS flags front-end oil spike as 20% global supply chokepoint threatened

Natural gas markets are also vulnerable. UBS expects global benchmarks — JKM, TTF and Henry Hub — to move higher. The risk stems from the potential disruption of Qatar’s 77 million metric tonnes per annum (mtpa) LNG supply, which is projected to rise to 110 mtpa with new capacity in the second half of 2026.