US ability to determine what comes next in Iran might be limited.

People carrying their belongings in luggage in Tehran, Iran, where large explosions shook the city and people reported seeing smoke rising from the district that includes the presidential palace on Saturday morning, Feb. 28, 2026. Questions remain about how much effort the Trump administration will put into changing the Iranian government.(Arash Khamooshi/The New York Times) By JULIAN E. BARNES and TYLER PAGER U.S. intelligence agencies produced multiple scenarios in recent weeks of what...