Jamaica’s economy shrank sharply at the end of last year, and the country now faces what the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) calls a “negative” short-term outlook—with the real risk of a recession if the slide continues into the current quarter. Presenting the preliminary outturn for the October–December 2025 quarter at the PIOJ’s quarterly briefing today, Director General Dr Wayne Henry reported that real value added fell by 7.5 per cent compared with the same period of 2024—the steepest quarterly decline since the COVID-19 shock of mid-2020.