Indian rupee may slide past 92 to record low as Mideast war fires up oil prices

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is set to weaken past 92 per dollar at a lifetime low on Wednesday as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran ​sent oil prices soaring, lifting demand for the safe-haven dollar, and ‌fuelling risk aversion. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 92.10-92.20 range versus the US dollar, having settled at 91.47 on Monday. Indian financial markets were closed on ​Tuesday for a holiday. The rupee’s previous all-time low of 91.9875 was hit ​in January. Brent Crude rose more than 1% to $82.32 on Wednesday, extending ⁠a rally of over 11% across the previous two sessions. It had climbed ​past $85 on Tuesday for the first time in nearly two years. Oil markets have been ​rattled by fears that the widening Middle East war could disrupt flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route that carries roughly a fifth of world oil and LNG supplies. The ​oil price rally poses a significant challenge for India, which imports more than ​80% of its crude requirement. Higher prices inflate the country’s import bill, widen the current account deficit, ‌push ⁠up inflation, and increase dollar demand from oil refiners, all of which pile pressure on the rupee. “Our calculations show that every $10 barrel move in oil prices can raise the current account deficit by 0.35% of GDP, with the impact on inflation (20-30 ​basis points) contingent on ​the extent of ⁠pass-through to the retail prices,” DBS Bank said in a note. Supply-driven rise in oil prices tends to dampen risk appetite, ​often prompting foreign investors to pull funds from emerging-market equities. ​For India, ⁠where sentiment in equities was already fragile, such outflows are likely to put pressure on the rupee. Foreign investors took out more than $350 million from Indian equities on Monday. Dollar rallies, equities slump The dollar index rose to a three-month high, ​supported by a weaker euro and risk-off sentiment. US equity futures extended Tuesday’s losses, while Indian equities ​were set to open nearly 2% lower.