As the Third Gulf War escalates across the Persian Gulf, a pivotal question looms over the regional security architecture: will Islamabad honour its Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) with Saudi Arabia? Signed in September 2025, the pact, often likened to NATO’s Article 5, stipulates that any aggression against one is an attack on both. With Iranian drones recently targeting the Ras Tanura refinery and the US Embassy in Riyadh, the collective defence clause is facing its first major stress test. Deterrence or Diplomacy? Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar recently suggested that Pakistani shuttle diplomacy has already mitigated the conflict’s intensity. According to Dar, Tehran sought assurances that Saudi soil would not be used for US-led Operation Epic Fury. He claims that as a result, the Kingdom has faced the fewest attacks compared to other regional neighbours. However, critics argue that mutual defence pacts are designed to deter aggression entirely, not merely manage the volume of incoming fire. The dilemma for Islamabad is stark. Activating the pact risks a massive escalation and potential internal friction within Pakistan’s own borders. Conversely, remaining on the sidelines could signal military impotence, carrying high reputational costs for a nation seeking to restore its status as a […]