KARACHI: The domestic cotton market is currently maintaining a trend of price stability, however stocks remain limited and overall trading activity continues to be sluggish. The latest figures regarding textile exports are deeply alarming. February witnessed a severe blow to textile exports, which plummeted to their lowest level in ten months, a development that serves as a gravely serious indicator for the national economy and the industrial sector. On the agricultural front, early sowing of cotton has partially commenced in the fertile regions of Sindh and Punjab. In this regard, it is worth noting that the Federal Committee of Agriculture issues its initial estimates for cotton production every year, much like it does for other crops. However, the experience of several past years clearly demonstrates that the committee’s estimates bear little resemblance to ground realities, and actual production has consistently fallen far short of these projections. Against this backdrop, a respectful appeal is being made to the current officials of the committee to refrain from making paper-based estimates while sitting in air-conditioned offices and instead conduct direct on-ground assessments so that they may present estimates rooted in reality, thereby restoring their credibility and public trust. The domestic textile sector is currently engulfed in a severe crisis. More than one hundred and fifty textile mills have shut down, while the escalating tensions in the region have further complicated the situation. The ongoing military tensions between Iran, Israel and the United States are causing regional conditions to deteriorate from bad to worse, the effects of which are being directly felt by Pakistan’s textile industry. In light of this situation, the Pakistan Textile Council has appealed to the government to immediately consider tariff relief and other temporary facilitations in order to protect this vital industry from further damage. On another front, brokers of the Karachi Cotton Association have expressed serious concern, stating that the Federal Investigation Agency proceeded to establish its offices within the KCA building even before the reserved judgment of the honourable Sindh High Court had been announced. The brokers are demanding that the honourable Sindh High Court take serious notice of this action by the FIA and ensure that the matter is addressed in a fair and just manner. The local cotton market witnessed continued price stability throughout the past week. Although cotton stocks are gradually depleting as the season has concluded, a few hundred thousand bales remain in the possession of ginners, while several thousand bales are held by two private companies, whose trading activity continues intermittently. Cotton sowing is expected to commence once the wheat harvest is complete. Reports are already emerging from certain fertile regions of Sindh and Punjab indicating that early-crop cotton cultivation has begun. The Punjab Agriculture Department has allocated 700,000 acres for early-variety cotton cultivation this season. Every year, the Federal Committee on Agriculture announces its initial production estimates for cotton and other crops. However, experience over the past several years has demonstrated that the committee’s projections have consistently fallen short of accuracy, with actual cotton output proving significantly lower than officially estimated figures. In this regard, the committee’s current officials are respectfully urged to refrain from issuing production estimates from the comfort of air-conditioned offices and to instead base their assessments on ground realities, so that public confidence in their projections may be restored. On the broader economic front, the textile sector continues to face a serious crisis, with several mills having already shut down operations. The regional situation has further deteriorated due to the ongoing conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States, which has compounded existing economic difficulties. Financial stress in the markets remains severe. Business activity has also slowed down owing to the holy month of Ramadan, with trade particularly subdued during the current final ten days of the month. A recovery in commercial activity is anticipated following the conclusion of Ramadan. In terms of pricing, cotton rates across Sindh and Punjab are currently ranging between Rs. 15,500 and Rs. 16,500 per maund, varying according to quality and payment conditions. The Karachi Cotton Exchange building has been sealed by the Evacuee Trust Property Board (ETPB), with the assistance of the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) for the past three months, as a result of which the critically important daily cotton spot rate has not been able to be issued, causing significant disruption to the cotton trade. According to registered brokers of the Karachi Cotton Association (KCA), the FIA began opening its offices within the KCA building before the reserved judgment of the honourable Sindh High Court was announced. The brokers have expressed that the honourable Sindh High Court should take this action by the FIA very seriously, as it raises concerns about due process and the sanctity of pending judicial proceedings. Chairman of the Karachi Cotton Brokers Forum, Naseem Usman, stated that relative stability continues to prevail in the international cotton market. New York cotton futures are currently trading between 65.50 and 69.50 US cents per pound. According to the USDA weekly export and sales report, a total of 253,200 bales were sold for the marketing year 2025–26. Vietnam led all buyers by purchasing 116,300 bales, followed by Bangladesh in second place with 28,200 bales, while Pakistan came in third with purchases of 22,200 bales. For the 2026–27 marketing year, total sales stood at 36,600 bales. Vietnam again topped the list with 15,100 bales, Turkey followed in second place with 13,200 bales, and Bangladesh ranked third with purchases of 7,700 bales. On the export shipments side, a total of 370,100 bales were exported during the reported period. Vietnam remained the leading importer, receiving 148,500 bales, while Pakistan ranked second with imports of 47,000 bales, and Turkey came in third place with 35,500 bales. Pakistan’s textile exports suffered a major blow in February 2026, plunging to their lowest level in ten months. According to sources, textile exports recorded a decline of 23.56 percent on a monthly basis and 6.34 percent on an annual basis, bringing the total to 1.33 billion dollars. In comparison, textile exports stood at 1.42 billion dollars in February 2025 and 1.74 billion dollars in January 2026. Notably, this decline was recorded even before the regional tensions took effect, and there are concerns that exports may fall further in March due to the deteriorating situation in the region. On the global front, a recent American report indicates that world cotton production for the 2025/26 season is expected to rise by approximately 1.1 million bales, reaching 121 million bales. This increase is largely driven by higher output in Brazil and China, though a decline in Argentina’s production is partially offsetting these gains. Global cotton consumption is estimated at approximately 118.6 million bales, slightly lower than previous projections, as demand has weakened in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Vietnam. However, increased consumption in China is helping to compensate for part of this shortfall. World cotton trade is projected to expand to around 43.9 million bales, primarily due to a rise in Australian exports and higher imports by India, while imports from Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Vietnam have declined. Copyright Business Recorder, 2026