The Iran war and Strait of Hormuz crisis remain in a tense selective-disruption phase rather than full closure, with Brent crude pulling back today (around $102 after earlier spikes) as markets digest weekend strikes and fresh US comments. The US precision bombing on Kharg Island hit only military assets (mines, missiles, air defenses) – leaving the oil export terminal (up to 90% of Iran’s loadings) untouched and operational. As Rabobank notes, “Trump was at pains to be clear that oil infrastructure was not targeted, but the implicit threat that it could be is an unsubtle one,” with Trump later joking about further strikes “just for fun.” Tanker crossings via the Hormuz with AIS transponders. Now we’ve reported that some tankers have been turning off their transponders to go stealth through the waterway.  Latest Bloomberg ship-tracking data shows the Strait, on either side, is a massive parking lot of tankers. This could take weeks, if not longer, to unclog. The USS Tripoli (light carrier with ~2,500 Marines and F-35Bs) has been redeployed to the Persian Gulf, fueling speculation about potential boots-on-ground roles (securing Kharg or clearing northern approaches), which Rabobank flags as a “major escalation.” Limited Iranian attacks hit US-aligned Gulf oil […]