Global markets are watching Jerome Powell’s March 18 Federal Reserve meeting very closely. Interest-rate futures now price about a 25% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. Oil prices have surged near $100 per barrel after tensions involving Iran disrupted global energy supply routes. The shock is already lifting gasoline prices and inflation expectations. Investors now fear a hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. Higher oil prices can quickly push up transportation, food, and manufacturing costs. The Federal Reserve led by Jerome Powell had planned rate cuts. But if inflation moves above the Fed’s 2% target again, policymakers may pause easing — or even raise interest rates to stabilize prices and protect economic credibility.