EDITORIAL: The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority’s (Ogra’s) notification, announcing a sharp 19-22 percent increase in RLNG prices for March for the country’s two gas utilities, comes as little surprise, given the disruption unfolding in global energy markets amid the US-Israel war on Iran. For SNGPL, the RLNG sale price at the transmission stage has risen by 19.3 percent to USD 12.49 per mmBtu for March, while the distribution-stage price has climbed 19.6 percent to USD 13.55 per mmBtu. For SSGCL, the increase is even steeper: RLNG prices at the transmission stage have surged 22 percent to USD 11.12 per mmBtu, while distribution-stage prices have risen by the same margin to USD 12.54 per mmBtu. In rupee terms, this translates into an increase of Rs622 per mmBtu for SNGPL consumers and Rs634 per mmBtu for those served by SSGCL. Ogra attributes the surge primarily to higher terminal charges, alongside a rise in the delivered ex-ship price and other import-related costs. The spike in terminal charges reflects the sharp reduction in LNG cargoes arriving in the country, which has forced fixed terminal and port-handling costs to be spread over a smaller volume of gas, inevitably pushing up the per-unit price. In March, the basket RLNG price was calculated on the basis of only two cargoes arriving in the country – compared with the eight that arrived in February – after Qatar declared force majeure following Iranian drone attacks on its gas facilities and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. It must also be noted that matters are worsened by a persistent structural problem within the domestic gas system. Unaccounted-for gas – the gap between the volume of gas supplied and actually billed, arising from pipeline leakages, theft and metering or billing inefficiencies – has been rising for both SSGCL and SNGPL since January. These losses feed into the system’s cost structure, inflating prices for paying consumers, and remain a long-standing inefficiency that demands an urgent meaningful action. However, it is the broader context here that is difficult to ignore. The war’s impact on global energy markets was always going to push LNG costs in Pakistan higher. Iran’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz have removed 20 percent of global LNG exports, sharply lifting prices across international markets. In addition, Qatar, Pakistan’s primary LNG supplier, has halted production at a facility with a capacity of 77 million tonnes per annum and declared force majeure on LNG shipments, followed by Shell, the world’s largest LNG trader, also doing the same. Most worryingly, Qatar’s energy minister has warned that even if hostilities ceased immediately, restoring normal delivery schedules could take “weeks to months”. The conflict has already driven domestic petroleum prices up by Rs55 per litre, and the increase in RLNG tariffs is a natural extension of that broader energy shock. Maintaining a degree of price parity across different fossil fuels remains necessary to avoid market distortions. No political government, however, can remain oblivious to the cumulative burden such increases impose on households and businesses already struggling with elevated energy costs. Islamabad has reportedly attempted to persuade the IMF to allow part of the shock to be absorbed through a reduction in the petroleum levy so that consumers are not forced to shoulder the full impact of the surge. The Fund, however, has shown little inclination to accommodate such relief, citing persistent revenue shortfalls at the FBR and the need to maintain fiscal discipline. In the months ahead, then, the government faces a delicate balancing act: safeguarding fiscal commitments while shielding households and industry from the brunt of this global energy shock. With limited fiscal space and flexibility under the IMF programme, consumers are likely to continue bearing a substantial share of the burden in the foreseeable future. Copyright Business Recorder, 2026