The World Bank (WB) has flagged a slowing Philippine economy as investor sentiment weakens, financial markets soften, and manufacturing and exports falter—even as joblessness steadies and inflation stays below target. “There are signs that economic activity may be decelerating” in the country, the WB said in its Philippines Monthly Economic Developments report for September 2025, published on Oct. 14. The WB highlighted that investor sentiment toward domestic financial assets weakened in September, with the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) falling 0.9 percent between August and Sept. 18—contrasting with the rising stock markets of regional peers since July. The WB noted that while interest rate cuts by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)—which lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75 percent last Oct. 9—and the United States (US) Federal Reserve supported early September gains, negative market developments later limited buying activity in the domestic stock market. Among these “unfavorable market updates” were “governance issues in flood control projects, an uptrend in inflation and unemployment, and lower foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows,” the report said. “Amid these developments, foreign investors became net sellers of local shares. This contributed to the slight weakening of the Philippine peso against the US dollar,” the report noted. “In real effective terms, the Philippine peso depreciated in August against a basket of currencies of its major trading partners” and sustained a slight depreciation last month, it added. The WB also noted that the Philippines’ merchandise export growth fell to an eight-month low in August, with exports rising just 4.6 percent year-on-year as shipments to the US declined following the introduction of higher tariffs. This came even as export growth was “driven by sustained demand for semiconductors and electronic data processing equipment, primarily from Hong Kong and Japan,” the report added. Meanwhile, the WB emphasized that merchandise import values declined by 4.9 percent year-on-year last August, mainly due to lower global prices for coal and petroleum products. The Philippines is a net oil importer. The report also noted that imports of raw materials and intermediate goods fell after robust growth in prior months. Imports of motor vehicles, however, rose—driven by strong consumer demand. The WB noted that, in all, the goods trade deficit narrowed from $4.4 billion in July to $3.5 billion in August. The WB also highlighted that high-frequency data indicated a slowdown in manufacturing activity, with output rising just 1.4 percent year-on-year in August, largely supported by growth in the food products sector. However, the WB said that production of electrical equipment as well as computer, electronic, and optical products decelerated, reflecting the slowdown in export growth. The WB also noted that the country’s S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for September dropped to 49.9, falling below the neutral threshold for the first time in six months and indicating a contraction in activity. “Despite modest gains in external demand, output and new orders from the domestic market declined, and business confidence, while positive, remained subdued,” the WB added. The WB further highlighted that labor market conditions steadied as the effects of weather-related disruptions eased, noting that the unemployment rate held steady year-on-year at 3.9 percent in August, rebounding from a temporary rise in July caused by adverse weather that affected agriculture and fisheries. The WB said that employment in wholesale and retail trade fell year-on-year, although the reasons behind the decline remain unclear and require careful monitoring. “The government expects further improvement in labor market conditions as weather-sensitive sectors continue to recover in the near term,” the WB added. The WB stressed that inflation has increased moderately in recent months but remains below the central bank’s target, with headline inflation reaching a six-month high of 1.7 percent in September due to the delayed effects of weather-related supply disruptions, which pushed up food prices, especially for vegetables and oils. “Despite this, average inflation remains below the two- to four-percent inflation band set by the BSP and is partly limited by sustained rice disinflation,” the WB said. Year-on-year drops in rice prices helped ease inflationary pressures on the poorest 30 percent of households, with their consumer price index (CPI) falling by 0.2 percent in September, the report added. “Favorable inflation dynamics and moderating domestic demand” supported the BSP ’s monetary easing, the WB said, adding that the central bank has “space for a more accommodative policy stance in the context of a weaker outlook for economic growth.” The WB stated that external imbalances widened in the first half of 2025, though foreign reserves remained sufficient, noting that the current account deficit grew to 3.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—up 0.3 percentage point (ppt) year-on-year—driven by strong domestic demand that boosted goods imports. “Higher spending by Filipino tourists abroad and lower inbound tourism receipts also contributed to a decline in net receipts from services trade,” it added. Inbound tourist arrivals declined 1.6 percent year-on-year from January to August, while overseas remittance inflows rose 3.1 percent from January to July, supported by continued growth in the deployment of overseas Filipino workers (OFWs), the WB reported. During the same period, the WB emphasized that gross international reserves (GIR) increased by $2.6 billion, mainly due to higher gold prices. “This level of reserves represents an adequate external liquidity buffer equivalent to 7.2 months’ worth of imports of goods and services and primary income, and about 3.4 times the country’s short-term external debt obligations,” it said. (Ricardo M. Austria)