Gulf Insider
The 2026 Football World Cup kicks off June 11, with Mexico vs. South Africa opening the tournament at Mexico City Stadium. The tournament will feature 48 teams across 104 matches at stadiums in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico from next Thursday through July 19. Jan Hatzius, chief economist and head of global investment research at Goldman Sachs, published a cheat sheet for clients that used a forecasting model built around Elo ratings – the ranking system originally developed for chess – to handicap the tournament. His top pick diverges from the latest Polymarket odds, with Hatzius placing Spain at the top of the list as the most likely World Cup winner. “The model says that Spain has a 26% probability of winning the trophy, followed by France at 19%, Argentina at 14%, Brazil at 8%, and England at 5%,” Hatzius said. He noted, “Spain is predicted to win because it has the highest Elo ranking, supported by scoring talent and good momentum into the competition. Argentina is penalised by the “winner’s slump”, i.e. the statistical underperformance of reigning champions in the following World Cup; France suffers from likely facing top-ranked Spain in the semifinals; and England underperforms its Elo rating […]
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