The Korea Times
In my column last month, I provided a hot take on U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to go to war against Iran. I was equally scathing and worried, qualifying the war as illegal, bad faith, badly strategized and at high risk of producing bad outcomes for most stakeholders, including the U.S. and South Korea. Not only have those initial judgments proven correct so far, but the war is trending in the wrong direction. U.S. and Israeli tactical and operational successes via air campaign are undeniable, but this does not cash out in a “theory of victory.” That is, air power alone is highly unlikely to lead to worthwhile strategic and diplomatic outcomes — namely Iran’s democratic regime change, permanent denuclearization, inability to reconstitute a military threat and reform into a positive regional influence — that would somehow justify the war’s illegality, possibility of quagmire, casualties, depletion of military assets, economic disruption, negative geopolitical consequences and strategic risk. Instead, the war against Iran has led to regional spillover, significant
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