Business Recorder
EDITORIAL: The surprising rise in the number of nuclear weapons ready for immediate use marks a clear shift away from decades of gradual restraint, and it comes against the backdrop of Donald Trump’s return to a pro-war posture despite campaigning on ending endless wars, leaving a global security environment that is visibly more unstable. The latest Nuclear Weapons Ban Monitor report makes that shift explicit: the era of nuclear reduction is over, and the focus has moved decisively towards readiness. The numbers underline the change. Nearly 9,745 nuclear warheads are now available for potential use, an increase from the previous year, with over 4,000 already deployed across missiles, submarines and bomber bases. This is not simply an expansion of stockpiles; it is a recalibration of posture. Weapons are being positioned for faster use, shortening decision timelines and increasing the probability of miscalculation. This distinction matters. Total global stockpiles, estimated at just over 12,000 warheads, remain well below Cold War peaks. That statistic, often cited to suggest progress, obscures the more relevant trend. What is changing is not how many weapons exist, but how many are ready. The shift from dormant deterrence to operational readiness carries its own risks, particularly in an environment marked by multiple overlapping conflicts. The erosion of arms control frameworks has accelerated this transition. The lapse of New START, the last remaining treaty between the United States and Russia limiting strategic nuclear forces, has removed a key layer of predictability. Without such mechanisms, transparency diminishes and the incentives to match or exceed perceived adversaries increase. The system begins to move on momentum rather than deliberate policy. This is further complicated by the expanding number of nuclear actors. The Cold War model, defined by two principal rivals, has given way to a more fragmented landscape that includes established and emerging powers across different regions. Strategic calculations are no longer bilateral. They are shaped by a web of regional rivalries, each with its own dynamics and thresholds. Pakistan’s inclusion among states increasing deployment must be understood within this context. Its nuclear posture has long been tied to regional deterrence, particularly in relation to India. The report’s findings do not suggest a departure from that framework, but rather reflect a broader trend in which all nuclear-armed states are moving towards higher readiness. The implications are therefore systemic, not isolated. The language used by the report’s authors is instructive. “Nuclear posturing is on autopilot,” they note, pointing to a pattern where signalling and capability development proceed with limited political recalibration. In such an environment, escalation risks are not always the result of deliberate choice. They can emerge from routine decisions taken within a system that has normalised heightened alertness. At the same time, the gap between nuclear and non-nuclear states continues to widen. Nearly 100 countries have aligned themselves with the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, signalling support for complete disarmament. None of the nuclear-armed states have joined. This divergence reflects a broader disconnect between normative commitments and strategic realities. The consequences of this trajectory are not abstract. Increased deployment raises the likelihood of rapid escalation in moments of crisis. Shorter decision windows reduce the margin for error. The potential for accidental or unintended use becomes more pronounced as systems grow more complex and interconnected. And these risks are compounded in regions where conventional conflicts remain active. What emerges is a security environment that is simultaneously more armed and less stable. Deterrence continues to function as the organising principle, but without the accompanying restraint that once defined its limits. The mechanisms that moderated behaviour are weakening, while capabilities that enable rapid response are expanding. Reversing this trend will require more than renewed rhetorical commitment to disarmament. It will depend on rebuilding frameworks that impose discipline on nuclear policy and restore a measure of predictability. Until then, the current trajectory points towards a world where the presence of nuclear weapons is not just a background condition, but an active and growing source of risk. Copyright Business Recorder, 2026
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