The Manila Times
WASHINGTON — Recent US intelligence reports warn that Iran is unlikely to open the Strait of Hormuz any time soon because its grip on the world’s most vital oil artery provides the only real leverage it has over the United States, according to three sources familiar with the matter. The finding suggests that Tehran could continue to throttle the strait to keep energy prices high as a means of pressuring US President Donald Trump to find a quick off-ramp to the nearly five-week-long war that remains unpopular with US voters. The reports also provide the latest indication that the war, intended to eradicate Iran’s military strength, may actually increase its regional sway by showing Tehran’s ability to threaten the key waterway. Trump has sought to downplay the difficulty of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which carries a fifth of the world’s oil trade. On Friday, he appeared to suggest that he could order US forces to reopen the passage. “With a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE,” he posted on his Truth Social platform. But analysts have long warned that trying to use force against Iran, which controls one side of the strait, could prove costly and draw the US into a protracted ground war. “In the attempt to try to prevent Iran from developing a weapon of mass destruction, the US handed Iran a weapon of mass disruption,” said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, a conflict-prevention organization. Tehran, Vaez said, understands its ability to drive world energy markets through its chokehold on the strait “is much more potent than even a nuclear weapon.” Trump’s stance on potential US involvement in reopening the strait has shifted. On one hand, he has made ending Iran’s chokehold a ceasefire precondition, but then he called on Gulf oil-dependent countries and NATO allies to take the lead in reopening it. A White House official, who requested anonymity, said Trump is “confident that the strait will be open very soon” and has been clear that Iran would not be allowed to regulate waterway traffic after the war. But the official noted that Trump also has said that other countries “have far more at stake in preventing this outcome” than the US. Iran’s out-gunned Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has used various tactics to make commercial transit through the waterway too dangerous or uninsurable since Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netan-yahu launched their war on Feb. 28. From attacking civilian vessels and releasing mines to demanding passage fees, Iran has effectively blocked traffic through the strait, sending world oil prices soaring to multi-year highs and causing fuel shortages in countries reliant on Gulf oil and gas. Rising energy costs risk fueling inflation in the US, posing a political liability for Trump as he faces dismal poll numbers and his Republican Party girds for midterm congressional elections in November. Iran, the recent intelligence reports warn, is unlikely to surrender that leverage any time soon, according to the three sources. They declined to elaborate on which agencies produced the assessments. “It is certainly the case that now that Iran has tasted its power and leverage over the strait, it won’t soon give it up,” said one of the sources. All three requested anonymity to discuss the intelligence reports. Considerable risks Many experts say that a military operation to reopen the waterway involves considerable risks. The waterway separates Iran and Oman. It is 21 miles (33 km) wide at its narrowest point, but the shipping lane is only 2 miles (3 km) wide in both directions, making ships and troops easy targets. Even if US forces seize the southern Iranian coast and islands, the IRGC could attack them and maintain control of the waterway with drones and missiles launched from deep inside Iran, experts say. “All it takes to disrupt traffic and deter vessels from passing through is one or two drones,” said Vaez. Some experts said that even after the war, Iran is unlikely to give up its ability to regulate traffic through the strait because it will need to rebuild, and charging commercial shipping passage fees would be one means of raising reconstruction funds. Tehran “is going to look to maintain the leverage that they have rediscovered by disrupting traffic” through the strait, former CIA Director Bill Burns said in a Foreign Affairs magazine podcast on Thursday. Iran, he said, will look to use its ability to throttle the waterway to win “long-term deterrence and security guarantees” in any peace deal with the US and to gain “some direct material benefits” like charging passage fees to fund its post-war recovery. “That,” he said, “sets up a really difficult negotiation right now.” Successful crossings One French- and another Japanese-owned vessel are among a handful of vessels to have crossed the war-torn Strait of Hormuz, maritime tracking data showed Friday. Both ships made the crossing on Thursday, according to ship tracking company Marine Traffic’s website. The Maltese-flagged Kribi belonging to the French maritime transport group CMA CGM crossed the waterway to leave the Gulf on Thursday afternoon, Marine Traffic’s data showed. By early Friday, it was off Muscat, Oman, still broadcasting the message “owner France” on its transponder system in the field usually used to give the destination. The vessel’s navigation data showed it had crossed via an Iranian-approved route through its waters, dubbed the “Tehran Toll Booth” by leading shipping journal Lloyd’s List. Southern route In addition, three tankers — including one co-owned by a Japanese company — crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday by taking an alternative, southern route. They hugged close to the shore of Oman’s Musandam Peninsula — a first in nearly three weeks, according to Lloyd’s List. Before the war, which started more than a month ago, about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) passed through the Strait. All three ships signaled they were an “OMANI SHIP” in the message broadcast by their transponder as they crossed the strait. The Sohar LNG, which was empty when crossing, is co-owned by Japanese shipping company Mitsui O.S.K. That makes it the first Japanese vessel to exit the Gulf since the start of the war, according to a company statement quoted by Japanese media. The Hong-Kong-flagged New Vision, which crossed the strait on March 1 right after the war started, is expected in the French port of Le Havre on Saturday evening. Since the conflict started, however, that has dwindled to a trickle as Iran selectively attacks ships and energy facilities throughout the Gulf in retaliation for US and Israeli attacks. A few commercial ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz recently have passed through the Iranian-approved route in the north of the waterway. Down to a trickle Just 221 commodities vessels have crossed the Strait of Hormuz since March 1, some more than once, according to Kpler data up to Friday morning. In peacetime, the same waterway handles around 120 daily transits, according to Lloyd’s List. Of the vessels that made the crossing, 60 percent either came from Iran or were heading there. The other countries whose vessels — of origin or destination — made the crossing were in decreasing order: the United Arab Emirates, China, India, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Brazil and Iraq. It was not clear from the data how many had been cleared to make the crossing by Tehran. But it did show that, among the 118 crossings by ships carrying cargo, 37 had left the Gulf carrying crude oil. Most of those oil tankers — 30 of them — came from Iran or sailed under the Iranian flag. And most ships carrying Iranian oil did not specify their destination on their transponder. Of those who did, all but one reported they were heading to China. In the early days of the war, transponder data showed dozens of ships broadcasting messages such as “Chinese crew” or “Chinese owner” in the field usually used for their destination. This appeared to be an attempt by the ships to avoid being targeted by Iran. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused supply difficulties and sharply raised fuel prices in Southeast Asian countries, including the Philippines. Ako Bicol Party-list Rep. Alfredo Garbin urged oil companies to voluntarily extend fuel discounts this Easter Sunday to help alleviate the burden of consumers who are still reeling from high fuel costs. This comes as fuel prices are expected to increase to P120-P150 per liter threshold next week. In a statement on Saturday, Garbin said that oil firms should not wait for the full implementation of the fuel excise tax cuts before acting.
Go to News Site