The Advocate
A closely watched congressional race in Nebraska is becoming a flash point not only in the battle for control of the U.S. House, but in a broader fight over LGBTQ + rights. At issue is Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, the Omaha-based swing seat being vacated by retiring Republican Rep. Don Bacon. Democrats view the district as one of their strongest pickup opportunities in 2026. But as Politico first reported , one possible Democratic victory scenario could also help Nebraska Republicans advance anti-LGBTQ+ legislation and eliminate the state’s “blue dot,” the single Electoral College vote Democrats have captured in recent presidential elections. The stakes are heightened by a crowded and competitive Democratic primary. As Nebraska Public Media reported , at least half a dozen Democratic candidates are vying for the seat, including business leader Denise Powell, former federal official Kishla Askins, Douglas County court clerk Crystal Rhoades, and others, in a race drawing national attention and significant fundraising. Powell led the field in fundraising heading into 2026, while multiple candidates have sought to distinguish themselves in a contest seen as critical to Democrats’ chances of retaking the House. Nebraska and Maine are the only states that split electoral votes by congressional district. Nebraska’s system allows the Omaha-based 2nd District to award one electoral vote separately from the statewide winner, creating the “blue dot” Democrats carried in both 2020 and 2024. Keep up with the latest in LGBTQ + news and politics. Sign up for The Advocate's email newsletter. The dilemma centers on Democratic candidate and state Sen. John Cavanaugh. If Cavanaugh wins the House seat, he would have to resign from the Nebraska Legislature, where he represents a heavily Democratic district. Under Nebraska law, Republican Gov. Jim Pillen would appoint his replacement, who could serve until 2028. Related : After 30 years in uniform, a veteran in Nebraska who survived ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ is running for Congress That matters because Nebraska Republicans are only a few votes short of advancing measures that have stalled in the legislature, including both winner-take-all presidential voting and bills targeting LGBTQ+ people, particularly transgender Nebraskans. According to the American Civil Liberties Union’s legislative tracker , Nebraska has multiple anti-LGBTQ+ bills under consideration this year, part of the more than 500 such bills the organization says it is tracking nationwide in 2026. In Nebraska, those measures fall into categories including health care restrictions, public accommodation bans, and “re-definition of sex” proposals that seek to legally define male and female in ways that exclude transgender and nonbinary people from recognition under state law. A Republican-backed effort to move Nebraska to a winner-take-all Electoral College system stalled in the Legislature this week after a filibuster, dealing a blow to Pillen and his allies. The measure did not have enough votes to overcome Democratic opposition, the Nebraska Examiner reports . One Democratic strategist involved in Nebraska politics sharply criticized Cavanaugh’s candidacy in those terms. “Time and again, when given the chance, Republicans have attacked the rights of the LGBTQ community, causing lasting damage,” the strategist told The Advocate. “John Cavanaugh knows what is on the line, and he knows that a Republican governor would appoint his replacement in the Legislature. Any politician who puts their own career ambitions first, like Cavanaugh is doing — especially during this moment in history — is no ally.” Cavanaugh’s campaign rejects that argument, saying Democrats can flip the Omaha-based House seat without sacrificing their leverage in Lincoln. Still, the broader concern raised by advocates and some Democrats is less about intent than consequence. The Nebraska Examiner reported that late-session Republican efforts to pass two major anti-transgender measures failed on Tuesday. One proposal would have banned certain gender-affirming medical care for minors, while another would have restricted public bathrooms to use based on sex assigned at birth. Both measures were revived through last-minute amendments but ultimately fell short of the legislative deadline. “Democrats must take back the House in November to stop Trump, and Cavanaugh is the candidate most likely to flip this seat blue,” Katie Bartizal, Cavanaugh’s campaign manager, told The Advocate. Bartizal said Republicans currently lack the votes needed to override filibusters in the Nebraska Legislature and argued that Democratic gains elsewhere will offset any vacancy created if Cavanaugh wins. “To block anything in the Nebraska Legislature you need 17 votes. Currently, there are just 16 Democrats in the Legislature, meaning Nebraska has the blue dot and blocked some anti-LGBTQ+ bills because a handful of Republicans voted with Democrats,” Bartizal said. “With strong local candidates running in key seats, historic investment from the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the deep unpopularity of MAGA Republicans, and Cavanaugh running a strong campaign that will uplift legislative candidates, Democrats will pick up at least two legislative seats in November, more than making up for the loss of Cavanaugh’s seat." Bartizal added, "Democrats do not have to choose between protecting the blue dot and flipping NE-02 blue.”
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