Business Recorder
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan may face a significant urea shortage of up to 500,000 tonnes during the upcoming Rabi 2026–27 season if fertilizer plants remain partially shut and demand continues to rise, according to official projections presented by the Ministry of National Food Security and Research. A presentation by the ministry indicates that urea supply-demand dynamics during Kharif 2026 remain highly sensitive to the operational status of key fertilizer plants, particularly Fatima Fertilizer, FFC Port Qasim, and Agritech. Under multiple scenarios assessed for Kharif 2026, supply constraints are likely if major plants remain shut. READ MORE: Middle East crisis escalates urea prices In the worst-case scenario—where Fatima Fertilizer and FFC Port Qasim remain closed throughout the season and Agritech operates only partially—urea availability could fall short of projected demand. Even in relatively improved scenarios, supply remains tight, highlighting structural vulnerabilities in domestic production capacity. For the subsequent Rabi 2026–27 season, projections suggest that shortages could persist despite the assumption that all plants resume operations from October. While the supply outlook improves marginally if only one plant remains offline during Kharif, risks of imbalance between supply and demand remain. The ministry has warned that urea offtake is expected to increase during Kharif 2026 due to improved farm economics compared to last year. Additionally, a significant price differential between domestic and international markets—Rs 4,500 versus Rs 14,000 per 50 kg bag—could encourage cross-border smuggling, further tightening local availability. Officials emphasized that ensuring uninterrupted operations of all ten urea manufacturing plants is critical to stabilizing supply and preventing price escalation in the coming seasons. For the Rabi 2025–26 season, total urea availability stood at 4.38 million tonnes, including an opening inventory of 1.148 million tonnes and domestic production of 3.232 million tonnes. Against total availability, offtake was recorded at 3.563 million tonnes, leaving an estimated closing inventory of around 0.8 million tonnes. This indicates that buffer stock remained at approximately 0.5 million tonnes until March 2026. Under Scenario I for Kharif 2026—assuming Fatima Fertilizer and FFC (Port Qasim) remain shut throughout the season and Agritech operates only in April—total urea availability is projected at 3.478 million tonnes, including 0.8 million tonnes of inventory and 2.678 million tonnes of domestic production. With estimated offtake of 3.364 million tonnes, closing inventory would shrink to 114,000 tonnes, resulting in a negative buffer stock of 186,000 tonnes. In Scenario I for Rabi 2026–27—assuming the same plant shutdowns during Kharif, Agritech operating until June 30, and all plants resuming operations from October—total availability is projected at 3.332 million tonnes, including 181,000 tonnes of opening inventory and 3.151 million tonnes of domestic production. With offtake estimated at 3.486 million tonnes, closing inventory would fall to negative 154,000 tonnes, with buffer stock declining further to negative 454,000 tonnes. Under Scenario II for Rabi 2026–27—assuming only FFC (Port Qasim) remains shut during Kharif and all plants become operational from October—total availability is projected at 3.631 million tonnes, including 480,000 tonnes of opening inventory and 3.151 million tonnes of domestic production. After offtake of 3.486 million tonnes, closing inventory would stand at 145,000 tonnes, implying a negative buffer stock of 155,000 tonnes. The Ministry of National Food Security and Research, in estimates shared at the highest level, has assumed zero urea imports in the coming months. On the DAP front, supply-demand conditions appear relatively stable, based on five-year average offtake trends. However, international price volatility remains a concern, as domestic fertilizer prices continue to be influenced by global market movements and exchange rate fluctuations. The presentation underscored the need for proactive policy measures to ensure adequate fertilizer supply, curb smuggling, and maintain price stability to support agricultural productivity in upcoming crop cycles. Copyright Business Recorder, 2026
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