The Korea Times
CAMBRIDGE/LONDON – Is the artificial intelligence (AI) boom a bubble? No one can be sure. But one way to answer that question is to ask a more manageable (and more interesting) one: What kind of world economy would have to emerge for today’s market valuations to make sense? Consider the core group of firms at the center of the AI story: Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Broadcom, Tesla, OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX-xAI, and Amazon Web Services. Taken together, they embody a remarkable market wager. Under a conservative benchmark—that by 2036 these firms trade at price-earnings ratios of 20, earn net profit margins of 20 percent, and obtain 65 percent of their incremental revenue from abroad—in a decade they would generate roughly $2.4 trillion in additional annual foreign revenue. Such revenue is roughly equal to all U.S. goods exports today and over twice the US current-account deficit. Granted, the United States will have to import some inputs (like semiconductors) to provide those AI services. And not all rents will accrue to Americans, because foreigners also hold shar
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