Business Recorder
EDITORIAL: The Pakistan Meteorological Department recently sounded the alarm regarding dangerous temperature rises, with March already exceeding extreme thresholds once projected for 2030. Its latest assessment shows that night-time minimum temperatures climbed to 14.7°C-2.7°C above the long-term average of 12°C-making it the second-highest on record, while daytime highs reached 28.5°C, 2°C above normal. The national mean temperature of 21.6°C during the month ranked as the fifth-highest in history, well above the historical average of 19.3°C, marking an exceptionally warm and destabilising start to the year. This worrying acceleration coincides with an equally alarming demographic trajectory, with Health Minister Mustafa Kamal projecting that Pakistan could become the world’s fourth most populous nation in five years’ time. The convergence of these trends is not incidental. Rapid population growth intensifies energy demand, urban sprawl and resource depletion, amplifying climate stress, while rising temperatures erode public health, productivity and economic resilience. Together, they form a vicious cycle, threatening GDP growth, undermining sustainable development and stalling our already fragile progress towards becoming a developed economy. Pakistan’s predicament is fundamentally inequitable: its contribution to global emissions is marginal, yet it faces some of the world’s harshest climate shocks. From rising temperatures and erratic monsoons to accelerated glacial melt triggering devastating floods, the country is confronting a spectrum of extremes that are growing more frequent and severe. Fragile ecosystems are being pushed beyond recovery, as rural livelihoods are destabilised by water stress and flooding, while urban centres are repeatedly overwhelmed by weather events they are ill-equipped to absorb. Within this landscape, rapid population growth is amplifying the impact of rising temperatures in particular, as well as that of other climate shocks. In urban centres, unchecked population growth drives dense, unplanned development that traps heat, intensifying the urban heat island effect, while beyond cities, it magnifies water scarcity and agricultural strain, exacerbating the country’s environmental and socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Tackling Pakistan’s climate crisis, then, requires more than climate action plans and bigger budgets; it also demands addressing relentless population growth. With 6.2 million people added to the population annually, a fertility rate of 3.6 and a 2.55 percent growth rate, this trajectory is clearly unsustainable if the country hopes to sustain a healthy GDP growth rate capable of driving its evolution into a fully developed economy. It is pertinent to note that a 2.55 percent population growth rate implies the economy must expand at a comparable pace merely to meet the needs of the existing population, a daunting task amidst recurring economic shocks, making it all the more urgent to rein in this expansion. This need not be an insurmountable challenge. Countries like Bangladesh and Indonesia have confronted similar demographic pressures successfully, slowing growth while boosting development outcomes. A key strategy they effectively employed was boosting literacy – particularly female literacy – which has consistently been shown to lower fertility rates, as educated women tend to have greater autonomy, access to reproductive health services and the knowledge to make informed family planning decisions. Moreover, it must be realised that addressing population growth requires a coordinated, countrywide plan of action. While population policy may be a provincial subject, a challenge of this magnitude cannot be met through fragmented, unaligned efforts. Months ago, Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal had proposed the creation of a National Population Council, chaired by the prime minister and including representation from all provinces. This idea warrants urgent consideration. Equally pressing is a rethinking of the NFC Award formula, which heavily ties resource allocation to population size, incentivising provinces to prioritise growth over control. A comprehensive, nationally coordinated approach is essential, both to bring population growth under control, and to ensure that Pakistan can confront its climate crisis with the resilience and resources it urgently needs. Copyright Business Recorder, 2026
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