The Manila Times
CIVIL society groups led by the Integrated Rural Development Foundation (IRDF) warned of a potential “systemic collapse” in the country’s food and energy sectors in the next six months and called on the government to immediately suspend oil taxes and expand subsidies as global fuel volatility has pushed rice prices to P60 to P70 per kilo. The warning was issued during a forum on Wednesday where IRDF and partner organizations pressed for a shift from short-term measures to what they described as a “National Survival Strategy” amid instability in global energy markets linked to tensions in the Middle East. IRDF said the Philippines’ heavy dependence on imported oil — estimated at 98 percent — exposed the agriculture sector to cascading risks, including rising production costs, declining yields, and supply chain disruptions. Among the most immediate concerns cited were reduced irrigation due to diesel prices exceeding P130 per liter, surging fertilizer costs, and logistics bottlenecks aggravated by the reported closure of more than 400 fuel stations as of late March. These pressures, the group said, could limit the movement of food from provinces to urban centers, worsening supply gaps in Metro Manila. The group also warned of heightened vulnerability to pest outbreaks, citing alerts from the Philippine Rice Research Institute on threats from brown plant hoppers and stem borers, particularly as farmers cut back on fertilizer use. Agronomist Teodoro Mendoza said projections show palay production, currently at about 20 million metric tons annually, could fall by 45 percent under a mild scenario, 55 percent under moderate conditions, and as much as 65 percent in a worst-case scenario driven by El Niño and high input costs. He added that rice imports may surge to between 4.9 million and 6.6 million metric tons depending on the severity of the crisis. To prevent further escalation, IRDF called for urgent measures, including the suspension of excise taxes and value-added tax on fuel and petroleum-based fertilizers, which it said would immediately reduce costs for farmers and transport operators. The group also urged the release of at least P10,000 in cash aid to vulnerable sectors, including farmers and informal workers, citing available funds identified by the Department of Budget and Management. It further recommended fuel vouchers for agricultural machinery, expanded rice procurement by the NFA, stricter enforcement of a P50 per kilo price cap on imported rice, and wider rollout of Kadiwa distribution programs nationwide. In the medium term, IRDF proposed reducing the agriculture sector’s dependence on oil through investments in solar-powered irrigation, rainwater harvesting and organic fertilizers, alongside the adoption of drought-resistant rice varieties. IRDF Executive Director Arze Glipo also called for the repeal of the Rice Tariffication Law to allow the NFA to expand its buffer stock from 15 days to at least 60 days, enabling stronger market intervention during supply shocks. Labor economist Rene Ofreneo said funding for these interventions could be sourced from existing government resources, including the Malampaya Fund and allocations under the 2025 and 2026 national budgets. “Government must act decisively to prevent rising oil prices from becoming a full-blown rice and consumer crisis,” Ofreneo said, adding that the issue was no longer about resource availability but policy priorities. The IRDF said failure to act promptly could push the country toward a severe food crisis in the coming months, particularly as global and domestic pressures converge on both the energy and agriculture sectors.
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