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Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is expected to face the most difficult two weeks of his leadership when Parliament returns next week, sources within the National Party say. It comes as the Herald can reveal a senior MP tried to present Luxon with evidence of what sources said was flagging caucus support for the National leader before Easter. It is now likely that those who believe Luxon should leave his position will make their move in the next fortnight, the Herald understands. A formal challenge or confidence vote remains unlikely, multiple sources said. The first move would be for Luxon to be presented with evidence of his flagging support in caucus, potentially triggering his resignation and a change of leadership. Should Luxon not resign, a challenge may take place. There is no formal challenger at this stage, only a group of MPs who do not support Luxon’s leadership, the Herald understands. Parliament has been in recess for the past two weeks, with Luxon announcing his reshuffle before the recess began. It returns for two weeks of sitting before going into recess again. When Parliament returns that time, it will be for the sitting block dominated by the Budget, which most political analysts would say is a bad time to remove a prime minister because it risks destabilising the entire Government. Waiting until after the Budget may leave things too late. All eyes are therefore on the next two weeks – a case of now, or not quite never. Luxon was asked by RNZ’s Morning Report last month if he had asked his ministers whether they all backed him. “I haven’t needed to because I have their support,” Luxon responded. Whip ‘ghosted’ by leader Luxon, the Herald has learned, faced intense pressure on his leadership in the last week of the last sitting block, a period that culminated in a long-delayed caucus reshuffle, which punished senior minister and rumoured leadership candidate, Chris Bishop. That reshuffle had been precipitated by a late-night meeting of Mark Mitchell, Paul Goldsmith, Simon Watts and Simeon Brown, at which it appears to have been resolved that Luxon should reshuffle his Cabinet to calm an unsettled caucus. No challenge was brought to Luxon in National’s caucus meeting on Tuesday of that week. However, there was sufficient instability in caucus for a senior MP to trigger a party process to flag Luxon’s wavering support. The Herald understands that MP was Stuart Smith, the Kaikōura MP who serves as party whip and whose job it is to monitor caucus and serve as a conduit between the back bench and Luxon as National leader. In the last week of the sitting block, Smith tried to contact Luxon about ructions in the caucus, three sources told the Herald. The ructions had reached a point at which Smith, as whip, was obliged to notify Luxon. It is not clear whether Luxon retained the confidence of caucus at this point. Luxon could not be contacted by Smith, sources said. For some time, the whip could not arrange any time to speak with his leader – a rare and extraordinary state of affairs, particularly when Parliament was sitting and both men were working in the same precinct. This meant Smith could not relay the information to Luxon, which may have triggered the process for his potential departure as leader, sources said. Smith did get in touch with National Deputy Leader Nicola Willis, who is believed to still be in Luxon’s camp and does not favour change. A Luxon ally believed Smith contacting Willis was as good as being able to contact the Prime Minister himself. Another source believed that had Smith reached Luxon it would have likely resulted in a formal caucus meeting, which could have led to a change. A separate source said Smith’s discussion with Luxon at Parliament, had it taken place, would have presented the National leader with evidence his position was becoming unte...
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