Axios
Data: Financial Modeling Prep ; Chart: Ben Geman/Axios Oil prices are up around 6% Sunday evening after the weekend brought fresh escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict. Why it matters: The jump after international markets opened reverses a large chunk of the sharp decline Friday, when President Trump and Iran's foreign minister claimed the Strait of Hormuz was opening to tanker traffic. The longer oil transit remains throttled, the longer crude prices will remain high. That affects U.S. drivers, because the county is deeply tethered to the global oil market despite being the world's largest producer. The latest: The global benchmark Brent crude is up to $95.42 Sunday night, while WTI, the main U.S. reference, is at $89.77. Catch up quick: American forces seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship after it tried to bypass a U.S. naval blockade in the Gulf of Oman, President Trump said Sunday. It's the first seizure and the first ship fired upon since the U.S. blockade went into effect last Sunday — in response to Iran effectively holding the Strait or Hormuz hostage since the war began on Feb. 28. And Iran said on Saturday that the Strait is again closed to traffic following threats of such action if the U.S. continued its blockade of the shipping channel. Reality check: Even before the weekend's developments, analysts were questioning whether the Friday announcements were anywhere near enough to provide ship owners the confidence needed to resume transit. What they're saying: U.S. average gasoline prices may not return to pre-Iran war levels under $3-per-gallon until next year, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Sunday morning . "But prices have likely peaked, and they'll start going down, certainly with a resolution of this conflict, you'll see prices go down," he said on CNN's "State of the Union ." Wright added that under $3 is "pretty tremendous" in inflation-adjusted terms. He argued the Trump administration has successfully managed the historic disruption. By the numbers: U.S. gasoline prices reached their highest point so far this year at $4.16 per gallon earlier this month and now are at $4.05, per AAA data. Wright said the highest point this year is still about $1 below the Biden-era peak in 2022. (Per AAA, the 2022 peak was about $5.02, compared to $4.16 this month.) What we're watching: Vice President JD Vance will lead a U.S. delegation for another round of talks with Iran in Islamabad before the ceasefire is scheduled to end on Tuesday night, two U.S. officials told Axios. The talks could provide an eleventh hour opportunity to reach a deal, or at least extend the ceasefire — though Iran has yet to confirm its participation and is concerned this is all subterfuge to provide cover for a U.S. surprise attack.
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