Gulf Insider
Something strange is taking place in oil. Crude prices have been remarkably stable over the last week, with Brent mostly trading in the high 90s on mixed prospects for the resolution of the over 7-week conflict in the Persian Gulf, despite signs to the contrary: the second round of talks between the US and Iran has been postponed indefinitely following Iran’s decision not to participate; President Trump extended a ceasefire “until such time as their proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other” and the US maintains its blockade of ships departing from or heading to Iranian ports. So while the market is rejoicing and trading at daily record highs that all is well, the oil picture remains just as bad as it was when the war started almost two months ago. According to Goldman, the combination of 1) a lower risk premium, 2) destocking in anticipation of expected Hormuz reopening, and 3) a moderation in spot buying, helps explain why futures crude prices, physical crude prices, and refined products prices have all moderated since the ceasefire despite still low Hormuz flows and extreme draws in global visible stocks. And yet, global visible oil inventories are likely to […]
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