The Manila Times
(UPDATE) VICE President Sara Duterte’s lead has narrowed in the survey on possible presidential candidates for 2028 survey conducted by OCTA Research. The survey, conducted from March 19 to 25, also had former vice president and Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo coming in second to Duterte. Duterte still leads with 33-percent preference, down by 5 percentage points from 38 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025. Robredo had a 21-percent preference, up 13 points from the previous quarter, the largest gain among all presidential hopefuls surveyed. The gap between Duterte and Robredo has shrunk from 30 percentage points to 12 percentage points. OCTA noted that despite the narrowing gap, Duterte’s decline is still within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent. This is the first survey since Duterte announced her presidential run on Feb. 18. It did not cover the announcement of Robredo on April 20 not opting to run for a national post. Coming in third was Manila Mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso at 10 percent, an increase of 2 percent from the previous survey, followed by Raffy Tulfo at 4 percent, and Sen. Bam Aquino also at 4 percent. A small proportion of respondents were undecided or refused to answer, while other personalities account for 20 percent of the responses, indicating that preferences beyond the top five remain widely distributed and fragmented. OCTA said that while Duterte continues to lead, the observed decline in her support should be interpreted cautiously, and does not, on its own, conclusively establish a definitive downtrend. Robredo’s 13-point surge, on the other hand, suggests a “statistically meaningful gain and a notable change in respondent preference within the survey period,” OCTA said The results reflect a “hypothetical and early stage preference measure, and are not predictive of actual electoral outcomes,” the pollster said. “[T]hey provide a snapshot of current public sentiment, which may evolve as political conditions, candidate positioning, alliances and national issues develop,” OCTA said. The survey had 1,200 respondents nationwide.
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